Brexiteer regrets 3 year old tweet shocker...

[Dominic]

Worth reading the replies...

[mikesjn]

So you are saying that the EU-Japan FTA was just created out of spite to the UK?

[Dominic]

If you can't see what I am saying there is no point trying to explain it.

[Uncle D]

Will be interesting to see what Toyota will do in the near future.

[ApusApus]

Is that the brilliant trade deal with the EU that reduces tariffs on car imports to zero thereby eliminating the need for manufacturing plants in Europe, especially when you have surplus capacity in Japan?


Shane

[ApusApus]

Ahh, but the EU now that's a different kettle of fish!


Shane

[mikesjn]

So you are saying that the EU-Japan FTA was just created out of spite to the UK?

As I understand it, the Japan - EU deal was 9 years in the making.

Honda would probably not attribute their move back to Japan on Brexit, for fear of alienating the 'holy' 52%. However, the fact remains that they can now have just one production facility in Japan, which is able to benefit from a brilliant trade deal with the EU.

No need now for a satellite production facility in the UK, which in the event of a No Deal will be about as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike.

Yes, I know, been reading about it for years. I have access to some true financial sites, paid subscription via my wife, and their analysis is very interesting.
AS A REMAINER, yes I am, I am beginning to get fed up of the constant harping myself, I think it is just entrenching the leavers, it would me, which may mean you don't have to wait at Passport Control, but I have to live here and I believe in consensus, not smart arse remote bullying, to be fair the Holy 52% is greater than the Self-Righteous 48% (That moniker actually only applies to a few on either side I am sure, most people I talk to just want to understand why and what can be done, not some new self indulgent Crusade.)
The car jobs were lost because of excess capacity in Japan and a free trade deal with the EU, so applying this as a result of Brexit is just wrong, you are quick enough to correct things and if Honda announces that a plant is being built in the EU to replace it, I will be the first to say you were right, but it has to happen first.
What will be interesting is will it affect the German car industry, already being talked about in true financial analysis, I quote in the new technologies that will drive industry in the future "Germany is an also ran.", Japan has decades of research on them in robotics and AI, it went onto say that Germany is great at reinventing itself, but in the framework of traditional engineering, so they are waiting to see what they do and if they can transition into the new technologies, which will be design and invention. Not reinventing the wheel and manufacturing.
Robotics, AI and new technologies like hydrogen fuel cells are the future (I used to work on one of the science parks, the company next door had a van running on a fuel cell continuously, they were designing and testing them, their VC funding was predominantly Japanese, so they said.)), the company I worked for, though I was a sys admin, was designing new AI programs for the pharma industry and actually selling them because although still in their infancy they actually worked much better than what they already had. The company above was testing the next gen photo voltaic cells they had designed, all on the roof, you will probably start using them in 5 to 10 years, though they will probably be made in the Far East, making things is so last year, it will be the model of design, patent, license for the mature economies, even China has manufacturing done in Cambodia to cut costs. Apparently some of the US, French, German and even UK companies ( I worked for one for 3 years, so we do.) that manufacture in places like Romania are looking at moving out because the costs have shot up and they can manufacture in say Cambodia or Africa even cheaper, even with the tarrifs, I remember chatting to the manufacturing guys and they said it was only marginally cheaper to get the electronics made in the EU, even with the tariffs and that was 5 years ago. The future will be interesting, but I think it will be nothing like the mainstream press reports.

[mikesjn]

Honda would probably not attribute their move back to Japan on Brexit, for fear of alienating the 'holy' 52%.

Ha, this article confirms what I said a couple of days ago:

Carmakers quitting Britain won't blame Brexit – it's not in their interest
The Guardian•19 February 2019

In 2012 a wave of anti-Japanese nationalism gripped China. Angry crowds burned down Japanese-owned factories, smashed Japanese-made cars and pelted Tokyo’s embassy in Beijing with eggs. It was an experience that jolted Japanese business leaders and they decided to make sure they never again relied on one country for essential widgets, and especially the finished article.

In the months before the Brexit vote, Japan’s government warned that a victory for the leave campaign could have a negative impact on investments in Britain. The Japan Business Federation, noting that more than 1,000 Japanese firms have a presence in Britain, joined the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in pleading with Britain to remain in the EU.

Since the referendum vote, Japanese companies have stayed largely silent. Like all major employers, they have broken cover in recent weeks to talk about the huge cost of a no-deal Brexit. But there have been precious few stories of companies, and especially those that sell directly to consumers, blaming factory closures or office relocations on the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

The exception is Nissan, which is not really a Japanese company in Europe. It is a French business run by Renault executives in Paris, and as such has an active political agenda. Nissan abandoned plans to build a new model at its Sunderland plant with a clear warning that uncertainty over Brexit was affecting its business. That said, the French Groupe PSA is not expected to blame Brexit should it – as expected – close the Astra-making plant in Ellesmere Port. The struggling carmaker needs to consolidate production and it would probably seem gratuitous to blame Brexit. Unlike Nissan, which has a highly productive factory near Sunderland, Ellesmere Port has struggled against low investment and poor management for years.

Honda was one of the businesses most affected by the riots in China. It also watched as anti-Chinese sentiment gripped Vietnam in 2014, giving rise to the same behaviour towards Chinese businesses meted out to Japanese firms a couple of years earlier.

So why would it blame Brexit for the decision to close its factory in Swindon from 2021? Amid growing concerns that the UK, like many other countries, is in the grip of nationalist fervour, there is only the prospect of souring consumer sentiment.

You are right, though your source is The Guardian, I will see what pops up on the financial analysis sites that investors work on and post an update.

[Jimgward]

Apparently the Honda factory alone, has 350 lorries a DAY, coming in from suppliers overseas....

It shows the impact ANY form of stricter customs will have on car production

[Jim B]

Honda would probably not attribute their move back to Japan on Brexit, for fear of alienating the 'holy' 52%.

Ha, this article confirms what I said a couple of days ago:

Carmakers quitting Britain won't blame Brexit – it's not in their interest
The Guardian•19 February 2019

In 2012 a wave of anti-Japanese nationalism gripped China. Angry crowds burned down Japanese-owned factories, smashed Japanese-made cars and pelted Tokyo’s embassy in Beijing with eggs. It was an experience that jolted Japanese business leaders and they decided to make sure they never again relied on one country for essential widgets, and especially the finished article.

In the months before the Brexit vote, Japan’s government warned that a victory for the leave campaign could have a negative impact on investments in Britain. The Japan Business Federation, noting that more than 1,000 Japanese firms have a presence in Britain, joined the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in pleading with Britain to remain in the EU.

Since the referendum vote, Japanese companies have stayed largely silent. Like all major employers, they have broken cover in recent weeks to talk about the huge cost of a no-deal Brexit. But there have been precious few stories of companies, and especially those that sell directly to consumers, blaming factory closures or office relocations on the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

The exception is Nissan, which is not really a Japanese company in Europe. It is a French business run by Renault executives in Paris, and as such has an active political agenda. Nissan abandoned plans to build a new model at its Sunderland plant with a clear warning that uncertainty over Brexit was affecting its business. That said, the French Groupe PSA is not expected to blame Brexit should it – as expected – close the Astra-making plant in Ellesmere Port. The struggling carmaker needs to consolidate production and it would probably seem gratuitous to blame Brexit. Unlike Nissan, which has a highly productive factory near Sunderland, Ellesmere Port has struggled against low investment and poor management for years.

Honda was one of the businesses most affected by the riots in China. It also watched as anti-Chinese sentiment gripped Vietnam in 2014, giving rise to the same behaviour towards Chinese businesses meted out to Japanese firms a couple of years earlier.

So why would it blame Brexit for the decision to close its factory in Swindon from 2021? Amid growing concerns that the UK, like many other countries, is in the grip of nationalist fervour, there is only the prospect of souring consumer sentiment.

You are right, though your source is The Guardian, I will see what pops up on the financial analysis sites that investors work on and post an update.

Mikesjn

I did suggest the same in the P.O. post section 5 after listening to an interview of a Japanese Professor on Five Live who stated that Honda were reluctant to point the finger at Brexit but this argument was rejected. Another point raised by many Honda workers on Twitter was that diesels made up only 6% of vehicles produced at Swindon which debunks another argument raised.

Jim

[mikesjn]

The way I see it is if they were relocating to Slovakia, yes, slam dunk that it is Brexit, but they appear to be repatriating it as they have a FTA, you would then have to say that they are closing the Turkish plants because of the Turkish government. You could argue that Japan is now siding with the EU to break Brexit because of their new FTA, it is just a point of conjecture. You might have noticed I do try to reason things through, give me a good argument and I will agree with you. But the UK plant has been operating at well under capacity, 160000 vehicles last year against a capacity of 250000. Seeing as we are both Remainers, we are actually arguing about whether this is something to do with something we basically agree on, I am not so sure that this is about Brexit and just about Brexit, leavers will just think it is the usual tricks. Would you be happy to be put in jail on the evidence you have been presented with that this is about Brexit in it's simplest terms. I wouldn't be happy for you to be. That is all I am saying and I could have just ignored you and gone and done some of the many things I should have been doing instead of talking to myself on here.

[ApusApus]

You beat me to it mikesjn, had Honda, or Nissan with the X-Trail, chosen to relocate their UK production operations to the EU then there is some validity in blaming Brexit but they haven't they are moving production back to Japan! And as for Ford who are threatening to leave the UK, here is an article highlighting what they are having to do in South America https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47300317, things are not looking so rosy for them either!

The fact is the global car industry is going through one of its toughest periods for many years and Brexit really is an insignificant blip on its landscape but it's one that people can easily latch onto to support their views!


Shane