UK interest rates.

[Kili01]

I’m in UK where the prospect of the Brexit talks breaking down completely has been talked about... with deep splits in opinions. Meanwhile the Labour Party seems more occupied with internal disputes over views in their party expressed about anti semitism concerning Jews in Israel.

Dee

[Kili01]

I’m in UK where the prospect of the Brexit talks breaking down completely has been talked about... with deep splits in opinions and general uncertainty. The small rise in interest rates seems to be viewed as being sensible by the BOE and financial circles. Meanwhile the Labour Party seems more occupied with internal disputes over views in their party expressed about anti semitism concerning Jews in Israel.

Dee

[Jimgward]

I do read posts but you quote "I think even the solid brexiteers - like Rees-Mogg," and then you quote "So our children and grandchildren will live in greater austerity" and you know this how?

Shane

I quote Rees-Mogg who says it will take 50 years to recover and see financial benefit..... so I am saying, based on that and other similar opinions by the ‘experts’ that this will therefore affect generations..... simples

[Jimgym]

I do read posts but you quote "I think even the solid brexiteers - like Rees-Mogg," and then you quote "So our children and grandchildren will live in greater austerity" and you know this how?

Shane

I quote Rees-Mogg who says it will take 50 years to recover and see financial benefit..... so I am saying, based on that and other similar opinions by the ‘experts’ that this will therefore affect generations..... simples

He also said. Rees-Mogg insisted the full impact will not be known for “years to come” as he hailed leaving the EU as the “greatest opportunity, economically, for this country”.

[ApusApus]

I quote Rees-Mogg who says it will take 50 years to recover and see financial benefit..... so I am saying, based on that and other similar opinions by the ‘experts’ that this will therefore affect generations..... simples

Oh, so you quote but select what you say! Jim you really need to get out more & question what the "experts" say before the world passes you by!
And a lesson in maths wouldn't go amiss!


Shane

[Kili01]

I don’t agree ith Mr Rees Mogg! Only the most optimistic Brexiteers are saying things like that.At present a satisfactory agreement with the EU seems to be a long way off, especially as Mrs May is being seen as a weak leader whose government is also seen as being weak and divided. Thus she must find it difficult to bargain from a strong position.
Fortunately for her the opposition is also seen to be weak and incoherent, although they seem to remain committed to remaining in the EU.
A few people think we should have a 2nd referedum, as many people who did vote for a a Brexit now realise that they made a mistake believing that it would solve the immigration problem, improve prosperity and create more jobs... leaving the EU with a hard brexit or even no deal could be a financial disaster for us and our country.

Dee

[Lofos-5]

[...] leaving the EU with a hard brexit or even no deal could be a financial disaster for us and our country.

yes, as also reported here:

viewtopic.php?f=19&t=6517

A.

[Jimgward]

It always puzzles me a bit about the pound or the Euro 'being up'
If the Pound is now up, I would have though that meant the Euro was down.
But the exchange rate was 1.12 this morning and is now 1.13 ???

You have to look at it from each respective currency! 1.00 GB£ got you 1.12 euros earlier but then moved to 1.13 which means that you get more euros for each £. But from the euros point of view 1.00 GB£ was worth 0.893 euros earlier, however later it was worth 0.885 euros so it means you are getting less euros for each £ you exchange. One man's up is another man's down so to speak!


Shane

Shane

You're the one who needs the maths help.....

£1=€1.12 is the same as €1=£0.893
£1=£1.13 is the same as €1=£0.885

So, when the exchange rate changed to 1.13 - you got 10cents more for your pound - whatever way you show the sum.... so you always got that bit extra - that's the same as the .885 - you're completely wrong in assuming that "you are getting less euros each £ you exchange....

Primary school maths, Shane old boy - who's a silly boy then?

[kingfisher]

Forget the Project Fear misinformation about “sluggish” growth.
How about reading [not looking at] the Bank of England’s own website this morning for an official summary of the thinking behind the rate rise? Try finding the word “sluggish” in their report.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/inflati ... B3EiwAKeoG

[Jim B]

I was down by the harbour this morning and the exchange rate was €1.09 in one shop and €1.10 in another. Last Friday I was given an exchange rate of €1.1165 against £4,000. According to Sky News the pound was still falling against the Euro.

Jim

[kingfisher]

Good Afternoon Jim,
As I’m sure you are aware, yesterday’s rise in UK BOE base rate would not necessarily impact either way on the GBP/ Euro exchange rate.
BTW, I have used Currency Fair for several years and have always found I got the best rates of exchange, and the charge was always a fixed £3 irrespective of transferred sum.
The exchange rate is currently very close to the average figure for the past year. [1.1284]. Many people quote the max/min spikes to prove points, but I prefer the year average, preferably from the official site below [Europa].
The Europa Stats graph for the past year is quite informative, and does not indicate any significant deviations.

Latest (2 August 2018): GBP 1 = EUR 1.1218 -0.0013 (-0.1%)
Change from 2 August 2017 to 3 August 2018
Minimum (29 August 2017): 1.0757 - Maximum (17 April 2018): 1.1590 - Average: 1.1284
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_ ... bp.en.html

[Jim B]

Kingfisher
Good afternoon to you.

Unfortunately most tourists do not have access to Transferwise (who I use) or Currency Fair and have to settle for what's on offer either from the bureau De Change or the ATMs which offer unbelievable low exchange rates. Sky are still showing a fall against the Euro of 0.2% today.

Jim

[Firefly]

Lloyd

I respect your right to hold and express your views, but please refrain for insulting and demeaning Brexiteers.

I do not have 'a thick skull' and I object to the inference, if you cannot post your views without insults, don't post at all.

Jackie

[OhSusana]

Staying aside from politics, two graphs -
the London Stock Exchange -
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... ?index=UKX
Note the fall in the graph, particularly from August 01 to August 02.
And now xe.com. A currency site. Non-political.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... UR&view=1W
Look what happened at 10 am on the 2nd of August. A fall initially of about 0.8%. Some recovery. But not enough afterwards.

For both the FTSE and the pound to fall on the news of an interest rate rise - very strange.

Anybody expecting saving rates to rise much in the next few years - no chance. Not now.
When I bought my place in Cyprus just a couple of years' ago the euro was between 1.3 and 1.4 and the economy was doing well. Those days are gone.

[OhSusana]

I do find it amusing that the best ApusApus can come up with now is variations on a theme of -
"We do not know what will happen".

This wasn't on the side of the bus either. Vote for Brexit, because we don't know what will happen. ))))

It's like going into a car showroom, and being offered a car with the proviso -
"It may work; it may not work; that's what's so great about it".

[OhSusana]

And when I bought my car almost 5 years ago I got 1.13 ish....exchange rates fluctuate they always have they always will...

You were very unlucky !!! Wow.

The rate was 1.27 in 2012 summer. 1.27 in 2014 summer, and hit 1.43 in 2016 summer.
You bought in 2013 - the wrong year! But I hope you enjoy the car. )))

[ApusApus]

But for comparison the spot rate reached 1.02 in winter 2008 & 1.08 in summer 2017 ………… and I'm sure Hudswell is enjoying his car!


Shane

[kingfisher]

Oh Susana The link I gave to the official EU statistics Euro conversion rate site [yesterday], shows the AVERAGE VALUE OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS for £/Euro is actually 1.2009 or 1.2 . [OFFICIAL NON-POLITICAL EU FIGURES]. Citing short-lived spikes doesn't prove much.

[OhSusana]

But for comparison the spot rate reached 1.02 in winter 2008 ...
Shane

You do make me laugh. You guys (Apus and Kingf) are funny, I have to say.
I simply wrote that Hudswell was unlucky!!!

Hudswell bought in 2013. (he writes "five years ago".) 2018 - 5 = 2013.
The average pound-euro rate in 2013 was 1.1779. Average!! So he was even unlucky looking at the data for that whole year.

Now let us look at a five year spread around when he bought - I'll reduce to 3 dp.
2011 - 1.153 // 2012 - 1.233 // 2013 - 1.178 // 2014 - 1.240 // 2015 - 1.378

Even looking at a five year spread, when he might have bought, he was really unlucky. The rate over that period averaged 1.236.
Even looking at the last 10 years - as Kingfisher suggests - he was still unlucky!!

Now, you don't need to have studied statistics or probability at even O level to tell me he was fairly unlucky.
==========

Now - that aside - begs the question, why are you both rabbiting on about 2008???
Answer - you are so blind in your belief that the pound hasn't fallen because of Brexit that you have to include statistics from the World Financial Crisis in 2008 to justify even Hudswell not being unlucky in 2013. )))) You are a joke!

A couple of "short-lived spikes" up the ApusApus might make you both see reality - but I doubt it )).

[kingfisher]

OhSusana- Your place or mine.
Jon