Viewpoint: UK will Exit EU with no deal

[ApusApus]

The Irish border won't be decided by the markets. I am actually very curious to see how that will play out.

Personally I think I would prefer a hard Brexit to May's plan, but it's rather like preferring to having a tooth extracted to a six monthly filling.

It will because the markets will find a way because commerce has to carry on, it just cannot stop, despite HiC's protestations! Personally, I think May has bottled it & is treading the middle road but that's another thread!


Shane

[Jimgward]

Dominic, the UK is essentially stating that the EU is responsible for securing it’s borders, therefore EIRE has to secure their with NI. All 230 or so crossings.... Now while checks currently occur in terms of duties, VAT and the like, in terms of where they’re paid, no stops take place at the borders.

Some are suggesting that reunification is the best option. This wont suit a large slice of NI, nor the Republic.

It’s a cluster-(insert bad word) of a situation that it’s hard to see a solution for, since we appear to not have published scenarios based on X,Y and Z....

[ApusApus]

A year ago Shane you and your Brexit cohorts were telling us that you would without doubt be swimming in euphoria and that there would be a queue of countries knocking at the UK's door, waiting to do business with them. At the time you would not not countenance the idea that Brexit might result in 'drowning in mire'.

But I guess the reality of Brexit is slowly beginning to sink in at last; it is not, and will not be, the nirvarna which Brexiteers hoped for.

Nope, I never said that & I must remind you again that I thought remaining in the EU was the best for the UK so that makes me a remainer like you!

But you cannot see that the tide is coming in, the inevitability of time is on us ………… we are leaving just get used to it & stop winging or alternatively you can make the most of the opportunities that arise!

It's really up to you!


Shane

[Dominic]

EU will have to police it's borders, but so will the UK have to police it's own.

[Lofos-5]

I am quite frankly totally sick of all the doom and gloom, which at present is pure conjecture.

It’s actually not conjecture - it’s already happening:


The cost so far (Economist from today):

Brexit uncertainty has already damaged Britain’s exporters

A study of British companies’ behaviour after the referendum shows them making less for the EU market

MOST forecasts suggest that Britain will be a poorer country after Brexit, largely because trading with the European Union will become more difficult. Such predictions about the distant future are, by their nature, open to doubt, which is partly why Brexit’s proponents feel free to dismiss them. But the same does not apply to a new paper by Meredith Crowley, Oliver Exton and Lu Han from Cambridge University, which suggests that, months before Brexit has even happened, trade is already suffering, as firms respond to the prospect of higher tariffs.

More than 100,000 British businesses export goods to the EU each year. At present they enjoy tariff-free trade with the country’s biggest export market. But all face uncertainty as Britain negotiates a new trading relationship with Brussels. Some fear disaster if the talks break down. British carmakers could face a 10% tariff to export to the EU market. Dairies might have to pay tariffs of more than 30%. These extra costs could make exporting uneconomic.

The Cambridge paper looks at the exporting decisions of British firms, across 8,000 types of product, in response to the tariffs that Britain would face in the event of reaching no trade deal with the EU. Where necessary, they adjust their calculations to take account of exchange-rate fluctuations.

Since the referendum many companies appear to have reduced their exports to the EU. The research suggests that the bigger the potential tariff facing a product, the more nervous firms are about exporting it. Why risk producing for a market that could soon become unwelcoming? Overall, the number of companies that began exporting new products to the EU in 2016 would have been 5% higher if there had been a Remain vote, the paper finds.

It is hard to know what those firms that decided against producing for the EU did instead. The research finds little evidence, however, that they have lived up to the hopes of Brexiteers and boosted their exports to fast-growing non-EU markets. Some may have tried to sell more within Britain. Businesses may have only temporarily scaled down their production of exports for the EU. Normal service could resume if Britain negotiates a good trade deal.

But some damage is already done. The paper’s results imply that in 2016 Britain lost some £1bn ($1.3bn) of exports to the EU because of the mere threat of higher tariffs. The long-term impact will be greater. Some of the firms dissuaded from exporting would have turned into big beasts. The referendum was only halfway through 2016, and the paper does not analyse data after that year. Meanwhile, Brexit uncertainty continues to rise.

[kingfisher]

The Economist: “academics” estimate loss to UK of 1 billion “because of Brexit”….. [£1,000,000,000]
UK GDP = 2.5 TRILLION.[£2,500,000,000,000.] [i.e. .0025%]
BIG DEAL!

The position of the remain camp is based typically on this sort of economic and financial consideration. These are also personal, both short and long-term. There are those of companies, large and small, short and long term. They are national economic considerations. These are all valid and important. However, they are not what leaving the EU [NOT Europe] was about. Therefore constantly bleating on about these factors is a side issue. The vast majority of leavers were well aware that you can’t make omelettes without breaking eggs.
The leave position is primarily one of principles. Polititians are not the best class of person to entrust these aspirations to, but the system requires it. And we have seen the mess they have managed to make of it between the various factions. As we no longer make statesmen [or rather statespersons], it is no surprise. We are stuck with a bunch of PC cultural Marxists all busily virtue signaling.
I came upon a comment in the Telegraph by a Duncan Holburn on 15 Jul 2018 10:22PM,
which sums up exactly why I voted leave, and the reasons. He says it better than I could. I quote:

“It is getting very tedious being constantly attacked and denigrated for wanting to be free and allowed to choose my own leaders and have a say in my own future.
I am not asking anyone to give up anything. If they wish to be run by Europe and live by European rules then they can be, there is an entire continent open to them and welcoming them. But I have nowhere to go, no where to call home and nowhere to show my children the values and beliefs I was brought up with.
The home I once knew and the space and culture I still value to this day has been pushed aside by those who have choices and options and who yet tell me that I have no right to have mine.
It is not a new story. We are a quiet and gentle people. Slow to anger, but great in power. We have chosen not to use that power. We do not riot, protest, float offensive balloons or dispute democracy. We only ask that it is honoured.
Slow to anger perhaps, but as many have found before, through their misjudgement and underestimation, our anger is as managed as our disciplined respect for all.
We do not seek enemies, we do not set out to make enemies, but when enemies seek us out, when they fail to heed our gentle request to leave us be, when they continue to try to deny us our liberty then they inspire and focus the anger and resolve to be British.
British is what we are. A nation of immigrants from all over the world who have learnt to share a common respect for the individual. The freedom to be oneself and live in ones own castle and share our common space through common respect, public decency and discipline without force and imposition. To use force only in protection of others and to respect every persons space and place and right to be what they choose to be within it.
We are British and we will stay so. Slow to anger but great in power. A power we hoped we would never have to know again but are seeing now that it will always be our heritage”

[Firefly]

Kingfisher

Good post.

Lofos-5

The article you quote is sadly lacking in FACT. It is full of, 'suggests' 'uncertainty' 'fear' 'could' 'appear to' and 'imply'. Sheer scare tactics

It holds no water for me.

Jackie

[kingfisher]

Thank you for your kind words, Jackie.
There is a Reuters article [link below], which gives an estimate made by the IMF of the cost to the EU of a no-deal scenario.
They estimate a cost of $250 billion, one million jobs, and 1.5% of GDP.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/no-de ... 07689.html
Jon.

[Firefly]

Kingfisher

I tried to access the link, but Oath keeps coming up. MOH has problems with Oath on his PC, so sadly I can't see the IMF figures, I'll take your word for it

Jackie

[trevnhil]

'OATH' is an infection on your computer !!! You need to get rid of it .. Google how to get rid of Oath on a computer

[kingfisher]

"LONDON (Reuters) - European Union countries will suffer long-term damage equivalent to about 1.5 percent of annual economic output if Britain leaves the bloc without a free trade deal next year, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.
Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29 next year, and Prime Minister Theresa May has yet to reach a consensus within her own Conservative Party on what future ties with the EU should look like, let alone broker a final deal with the EU.
The EU's lost economic output in the case of no deal would cost the bloc around $250 billion (192.51 billion pounds), according to Reuters calculations based on the IMF's estimate of the size of the EU economy excluding Britain this year.
Lost employment could total 0.7 percent of the EU workforce, or more than a million jobs.
The timing of the losses would depend on the length of post-Brexit transition arrangements, but would probably take five to 10 years at least to be fully felt, the IMF said.
While Britain and the EU agreed the outlines of a transition plan in March to largely preserve the status quo until the end of 2020, this deal has not been ratified and risks falling apart if there is no agreement on longer-term goals.
"The strength of the euro area-UK integration implies that there would be no Brexit winners," the IMF said.
Ireland would be worst hit due to its close trade ties with Britain, followed by the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. Germany would also suffer due to industrial supply chains.
Looking at the trade impact alone, Ireland could lose almost 4 percent of its economy in a 'no deal' Brexit, but some big countries like France, Italy and Spain would be far less hurt.
Britain has argued it is in the EU's economic interest to take a flexible approach to Brexit, while the EU is concerned not to set a precedent of allowing a country to leave but retain the aspects of EU membership it finds beneficial.
Some British lawmakers say the country should leave the EU and trade on World Trade Organization terms - the IMF's 'no deal' scenario - if the EU makes too few concessions.
The IMF said its study showed a bigger negative impact on the EU from Brexit than some previous work, because it modelled the disruption to manufacturing supply chains as well as the effect of tariffs and reduced financial services trade.
The Washington-based body also urged the EU to continue to allow London-based 'central counterparties' (CCPs) that clear global financial trades to handle euro transactions - something the European Central Bank has resisted previously.
"The potential forced relocation of a globally systemically important CCP to the EU should be viewed with great hesitation," the IMF said.
The economic damage from Brexit would be minimal if Britain were to adopt the 'soft Brexit' Norwegian-style model of being part of the European Economic Area, which May has rejected as it would largely require Britain to stick to EU rules.
A free trade agreement for manufactured goods - which is closer to what May is seeking - would reduce long-term EU losses to 0.8 percent of GDP, or around $130 billion.
The IMF did not estimate the costs of Brexit for Britain in this paper, which accompanies a two-yearly assessment of the EU, though earlier this week it downgraded its forecast for British growth this year to the weakest since 2012.
Before Britain voted to leave the EU, the IMF warned of a possible recession under an 'adverse' scenario, drawing criticism from Brexit supporters.
Earlier this year Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Britain's economy was around 1.5-2.0 percent smaller than it would have been if the public had voted to stay in the EU - not far from what the IMF forecast for a 'limited' Brexit scenario."

[Firefly]

Trevor

Thanks for the info.

Jackie

[Jimgward]

Jackie, for someone fed up with all this, you get seriously involved, but refuse to see the wood for the trees. There is wholesale acceptance now that hundreds of thousands of UK jobs will go and many years of austerity (for us plebiscites, boom for the speculators like JRM and others)

[Lofos-5]

Kingfisher are you saying because it hurts the other party more than Britain it is all good and dandy?

[kingfisher]

We don’t do “shadenfreude” here in blighty, old boy.
It’s simply not cricket to kick the other fellow in the b******* when he’s down.
However much one would wish to.

[Firefly]

Jim

I'm as entitled to my view as you are, you say I get seriously involved, is that a problem ? It seems to me that between you and Lloyd, I cannot win, I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't.

I wish you two would get together and decide if you want discussion or not.

Lloyd

Thanks for the heads up.

Jackie

[Jimgward]

Jackie, I welcome your comments, you’re as entitled as anyone to contribute, I was simply remarking on you previous comment;

“Lloyd

I am quite frankly totally sick of all the doom and gloom, which at present is pure conjecture. More subdued ? Not likely, personally I just fail to see the point of discussing a subject which we cannot, and never will agree on.

Jackie”

If you fail to see the point in discussing - yet discuss...... yes, doom and gloom isn’t particularly great, but this is an emotive and frankly a pessimistic topic, with no good news yet on the horizon.... So, by all means, discuss, but complaining that there’s no point, is the contradiction I was highlighting...

[Firefly]

Jim

Lloyd has stated that in his opinion some Breixteers are 'subdued', because we are ignoring his posts. I accept that it's a challenge for us to get involved in more discussion, that said, I am not and never will be 'subdued', but from now on you can both have the subject to yourselves. This is one Brexiteer that you will NEVER convince that it's wrong.

Jackie

[Oxfordboy]

I don't normally comment on Brexit (despite being British, I wasn't allowed to vote, but that's another argument) or politics in general, but I don't think I've read such conspiracy-theory-fuelled garbage in my life. No, it doesn't sound familiar. You're effectively saying that the UK was the only thing holding the EU back from its "desire to create a Super State"? Don't think so. You think the EU is some James Bond-like villainous organisation hell-bent on world domination? Don't think so. My personal opinion on the EU, which is not up for discussion or debate, is that the pros far outweigh the cons. Your personal opinion is obviously the opposite, so why do you try and lecture everyone? And besides, how can anyone "revel in dismay"?

[trevnhil]

You post your personal opinion, that's fine. But then say it is not up for discussion or debate.
Of course it is... That's what a forum is all about. Discussion and debate