Reports show more breakdown of Brexit Voters - and results were in line with educational attainment!

[keving]

With any correlation, the standard opening line is "correlation does not imply causation" ... that is so that people who are black and white don't bang on incessently about the correlation being worthless if it doesn't prove causation.

That is not so, correlations are useful ... they can be a useful start point if you want to dig deeper. If you want to.

You appear not to want to dig deeper - and indeed I started this process by attempting to answer: what could be the key factors common to the non-graduate population that made this population as a whole more LIKELY to vote Leave.

Rather than engage with me and my thoughts it is interesting that you choose to pedantically criticise OhSusanna ... and now you bring in Lynsab into this discussion. Amazing.

[cyprusgrump]

That is not so, correlations are useful ... they can be a useful start point if you want to dig deeper. If you want to.

Happy for you to dig deeper!

* fetches popcorn *

Please... tell me the deeper understanding you have of the BBC stats and how it proves in someway... errr... anything...?

Because I have made my opinion quite clear...

...and as you mentioned OhSusanna, I think she has made hers (assuming it is a she) quite clear too...

[keving]

Read my previous posts higher up on this thread ... obviously you have missed them

[cyprusgrump]

Read my previous posts higher up on this thread ... obviously you have missed them

No, I read the lot...

Waiting for you to prove... um anything really...

Although I realise that you find proving your claims somewhat tedious...

[keving]

What is there for me to prove?

I have stated possible factors which may have influenced that segment of the population who have degrees or equivalent to be more likely to vote Remain.

I have stated possible factors which may have influenced that segment of the population who don't hold degrees to be more likely to vote Leave.

Nothing more to add

[cyprusgrump]

What is there for me to prove?

That the correlation at the heart of this thread has any causation...?

[keving]

No.

I've said it a number of times on this thread that correlation does not infer causation. This seems to be a blind spot for you.

One more time: correlational research is undertaken to determine the degree to which a relationship exists between two or more variables. It is not undertaken prove a cause-and-effect relationship. Hence the standard rider to any analysis: "correlation does not infer causation".

PS I see that you continue to say nothing in response to my thoughts re the factors which may have influenced that segment of the population who do not hold degrees or equivalent to be more likely to vote Leave.

[cyprusgrump]

No.
I've said it a number of times on this thread that correlation does not infer causation. This seems to be a blind spot for you.

Not at all - I stated that very fact in my first reply to this thread...

As I mentioned on another thread, correlation does not equal causation...

One more time: correlational research is undertaken to determine the degree to which a relationship exists between two or more variables. It is not undertaken prove a cause-and-effect relationship. Hence the standard rider to any analysis: "correlation does not infer causation".

As I said, I quite understand that - I stated that very fact in my first reply to this thread...

As I mentioned on another thread, correlation does not equal causation...

PS I see that you continue to say nothing in response to my thoughts re the factors which may have influenced that segment of the population who do not hold degrees or equivalent to be more likely to vote Leave.

I gave you one very good example earlier...

You could have spent years dealing with the practical effects of the EU, but if you happened to have left school at 16 you are less capable of assessing its merits (according to this view) than a 22 year old with a Media Studies degree from an ex-poly.

The difference being that the (supposedly more intelligent) media studies student will be up to his/her eyes in debt which they will most likely never be able to repay...

I am not denying the correlation shown in the BBC's research - in fact, I said that earlier in the thread too...

Nobody can deny the correlation.... and I haven't tried to do so...

The point is that the research has been published by the BBC for the sole reason of denigrating Brexit voters. The implication being that Brexit voters are uneducated and stupid (and therefore racist according to certain posters). Shameful.

An alternative point of view is that higher-educated remain voters have been brainwashed by the lefty-liberal university system to think the EU is the best thing since sliced bread...

Of course, the BBC may well be about to release additional analysis of the data showing Brexit voters in a more positive light... But I think we know that is quite unlikely...

[keving]

Having established that people with degrees or equivalent are more likely to vote Remain, we might ask why that may be. Perhaps people with degrees are more likely to earn more money on average, perhaps they can afford to live where they want to live in the UK, perhaps they have happier lives, perhaps the unemployment rate is lower for this population ... perhaps many things come together to 'explain' why those with degrees or equivalent are more likely to vote to retain the status quo, ie a vote to Remain.

But if your highest educational level is below degree level and if the opposite applies - ie if you are on below average income, if you feel trapped in an area that you would like to move out of, if you are not happy, etc - then there might be a higher probability that you will vote for change, ie a vote to Leave.

[Dominic]

Surely the why would be causation?

Don't worry, I shall get my coat! Have fun!

[Jimgym]

Having established that people with degrees or equivalent are more likely to vote Remain, we might ask why that may be. Perhaps people with degrees are more likely to earn more money on average, perhaps they can afford to live where they want to live in the UK, perhaps they have happier lives, perhaps the unemployment rate is lower for this population ... perhaps many things come together to 'explain' why those with degrees or equivalent are more likely to vote to retain the status quo, ie a vote to Remain.

But if your highest educational level is below degree level and if the opposite applies - ie if you are on below average income, if you feel trapped in an area that you would like to move out of, if you are not happy, etc - then there might be a higher probability that you will vote for change, ie a vote to Leave.

Perhaps the majority who voted leave are just fed up with what they see as meddling and too much intrusion by EU into their lives. Maybe they feel disenfranchised.

[keving]

I agree with your final sentence. There are undoubtedly a large number of people who are disenfranchised, who feel let down by government.

Maybe a large number of the electorate who feel disenfranchised registered a protest vote in the referendum.

[Jimgym]

Maybe so. Perhaps it was a case of never imagining the leave vote would actually prevail. Complacency strikes?

[Jimgward]

I agree with your final sentence. There are undoubtedly a large number of people who are disenfranchised, who feel let down by government.

Maybe a large number of the electorate who feel disenfranchised registered a protest vote in the referendum.

I have zero confidence that the current government would make the disenfranchised feel any less so, particularly after Brexit, when their power increases and they can scrap all sorts of workers' safety-nets.

I think this describes the Trump effect even more....

[Firefly]

For me it seems more obvious why the over 60s voted for Brexit, we remember what our country was like before we became the members of the EU. We made our own laws and rules, we didn't have a lot of money but we had enough to live on. The futile rules and regulations that we must abide by at present, dictated by Germany and France are just laughable and very costly to us, no bent cucumbers, no King Edward potatoes, etc. etc.

We want our children to have enough money to buy their own houses, just as we did in the 60s. We want them to be free of Europe's strangle hold on the UK and our economy. We want to control our own immigration, look what's happening in Germany. That's not racist it's simply balancing the books. Merkel can put her head in the sand if she wishes, but surely anyone with any common sense can see what is happening, and it has to be stopped. The NHS is on it's knees, wherever you look, it's cuts and more cuts

All this business about correlation and causation is quite frankly becoming boring, and by the way no I don't have a degree, but that doesn't stop me from saying that I have, and that I'm a retired brain surgeon, which I'm not.

Jackie

[keving]

Bent cucumbers, now that's one that I haven't heard before.

I heard about some one changing their mind from Remain to Leave on the day of the referendum because they saw a bent banana in a supermarket before they went to the polling station.

[Jimgym]

Apparently the EU law has since been scrapped regarding bent bananas and cucumbers. The world breathed a sigh of relief. Thank goodness the EU has such pressing concerns, saves me worrying......

[keving]

Apparently the EU law has since been scrapped regarding bent bananas and cucumbers. The world breathed a sigh of relief. Thank goodness the EU has such pressing concerns, saves me worrying......

Great news!

Do you know if the EU law was scrapped before or after the Referendum?

[keving]

... Trouble is I don't know how you would do a correlation between "common sense" and "likely" voting pattern.

After all correlation only points to likelihood and nothing more affirmative than that.

I love statistics and probability, and provided you understand the limitations of any analysis it at least gives us something to talk about.

I'm sure we could have a great discussion if there was a correlation linking common sense with likely voting in the referendum. Alas, I fear it is impossible. Not only because I don't know anyone personally who lacks common sense, but I suspect the majority on this forum do not know many people who would claim not to have common sense.

Hence we can never have a correlation between common sense and vote Leave or vote Remain.

If anyone undertook such an analysis I would bet my farm on 50% of people with common sense voting Leave and 50% of people with common sense voting Remain. Linking the two variables would tell us nothing.

Personally, I think Jackie hit the nail right on the head with her view as to why a majority of over 60s voted Leave.

[PhotoLady]

Strangely enough, I would have thought anyone over the age of 60 with children at the time of the referendum, the majority of those children would have been old enough to have taken their own decision as to where they placed their X on the ballot paper on the day in question?

So as I see it the age difference, schooling/educational changes over the years would all play their part and one would assume (if statistics are to be believed) cancel each others vote out. Surely, you can only vote for what will affect you directly or personally, it's not possible to second guess / inflict your beliefs on those of your children once they're past the age to make the decisions for themselves?
For those with kids under voting age, fair enough...

And so the great treadmill continues.....