Whatever your political persuasion, defend your corner here. All we ask is that you voice YOUR opinion, rather than just post a link to a half-hour youtube video. Politics can get a bit lively, and if you prefer a less combative debate, please post in the Politics for Moderates section instead.
Happy in Cyprus wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:47 pm
Forgive me, the landscape appeared such a true reflection of what is actually going on, that for one moment I believed it to be verbatim reporting of the actualité of Brexit negotiations.
Perhaps you could give me a more realistic account of what is actually happening...and list what has been achieved thus far by our illustrious negotiation team.
I await in eager anticipation...
Wait no longer.
I do not believe for a nano second that you will take the time to watch and to listen (as I have) to the actual footage of David Davis’ brief given to the House of Lords Select Committee detailing exactly how the negotiations have gone so far. You clearly prefer simple headlines and bad news or the rubbishing of our negotiations team rather than listen to the facts. However, in the unlikely event that you are really waiting in anticipation, here it is (and believe me, it is nothing like that reported by John Crace.
Happy in Cyprus wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:06 am
Well Royal, it seems the CBI don't share your enviable optimism in the UK negotiating team. They refer to what has gone on hereinbefore as a soap opera:
No more Brexit soap opera': 60% of UK firms are ready to trigger contingency Brexit plans and move staff within months Business Insider UK Thomas Colson 5 November 2017
60% of firms will trigger contingency Brexit plans if the government fails to secure a transition deal by March 2018, according to a new survey.
That could involve moving staff or slowing recruitment.
"Currently, we see one major challenge – not Brexit itself ... But the approach to Brexit," CBI president Paul Drechsler will warn on Monday.
The survey found that 60% of firms will have triggered contingency plans by March 2018if there are no transitional arrangements in place, which would involve moving staff abroad or slowing recruitment.
Prime Minister Theresa May favours a transitional arrangement after Article 50 during which Britain's trade and regulatory relationship with the EU would largely continue, but stalled negotiations and political chaos in her own cabinet have so far prevented the speedy progress that is needed to facilitate a deal.
WHL wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:36 am
So fortunate to have all these financial experts/fortune tellers on here, ..what a shame ... in the real world they would all be mega rich,
WHL wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:36 am
So fortunate to have all these financial experts/fortune tellers on here, ..what a shame ... in the real world they would all be mega rich,
Probably because they know "little about the subject" (!!?)
Amos.
(retired economist).
I’m not relating any of the following to Brexit as its complicated, but manufacturing is up but construction seriously down two quarters in a row, something that normally triggers recession..... so, some warnings around.....
Happy in Cyprus wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:36 am
The CBI was giving a stark warning as to what would happen IF (yes 'if') the government fails to negotiate a transition deal by March 2018.
The CBI gave a stark warning IF (yes 'if') we left the ERM in 1992 when interest rates hit 15% and people were in negative equity, it would be a disaster.
They were wrong. After leaving, the UK returned to sustained economic growth.
The CBI gave a stark warning that IF (yes 'if') the UK didn’t join the the Euro back in 1999, it would be a disaster.
They were wrong. After the Euro crisis in 2008/2009 several Eurozone countries suffered depression. The UK avoided this by having control of its own currency.
There was a big recession after we left the ERM. I know, because I was working for a construction company at the time. The construction industry groun d to a virtual halt for several years before things picked up again.
I'm not saying the recession was caused by exiting the ERM. I am sure multiple factors caused it. But for a time it certainly was disastrous for a lot of people.
With regards to the euro, what was the stark warning? According to this BBC article, the CBI were in favour of joining the euro, but I couldn't see any dire warnings.
Dominic wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:42 pmThere was a big recession after we left the ERM. I know, because I was working for a construction company at the time. The construction industry groun d to a virtual halt for several years before things picked up again.
I'm not saying the recession was caused by exiting the ERM. I am sure multiple factors caused it. But for a time it certainly was disastrous for a lot of people.
Not true.
The early 1990s recession lasted from Q3 of 1990 until Q3 of 1991. The recession was caused by “the high bank rate in response to rising inflation caused by the Lawson Boom and to maintain British membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism.” The UK signed up to the ERM in Oct 1990 and crashed out in September 1992. There was no UK recession after leaving the ERM until 2008.
Dominic wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:42 pm
With regards to the euro, what was the stark warning? According to this BBC article, the CBI were in favour of joining the euro, but I couldn't see any dire warnings.
3 November 1998:
Adair Turner, Director-General of the CBI, also praised the euro in his closing address.
He warned business that without the euro, the UK could face increased exchange rate instability and a return to a boom-and-bust economy.
We live in a rural area of Herefordshire, there is a new estate of houses being built on the outskirts of our village, and another in village four miles away, they are selling like hot cakes. Construction carries on here.
Jackie
It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.
We live in a rural area of Herefordshire, there is a new estate of houses being built on the outskirts of our village, and another in village four miles away, they are selling like hot cakes. Construction carries on here.
Jackie
How come, then, that on the BBC World Service last week they were reporting a general fall in UK houseprices; all areas including the Capital (London)??
Amos.
Here too in Northumberland Jackie in fact in Amble they are worried that they have insufficient infrastructure for the amount of houses being built,most especially parking facilities etc.It also seems that all new estates here have a good mix of housing from Social to privately owned and buy to let schemes. Most estates,as in where I live, have a range of properties from 2 bed terraced to 5 bed detached.
Amos, you are the economist! I cannot explain the reduction in price other than surely if there is more housing available then prices are more competitive or is that too simplistic?
Certainly house prices in my area are pretty reasonable as you can buy a fair sized 4 bed detached 3 miles from the coast for 200k.On the coast of course prices are more. Don't let everyone know though as apparently Northumberland is the least populated county in England and we want it to stay that way!
Poppy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:12 pm
Here too in Northumberland Jackie in fact in Amble they are worried that they have insufficient infrastructure for the amount of houses being built,most especially parking facilities etc.It also seems that all new estates here have a good mix of housing from Social to privately owned and buy to let schemes. Most estates,as in where I live, have a range of properties from 2 bed terraced to 5 bed detached.
Amos, you are the economist! I cannot explain the reduction in price other than surely if there is more housing available then prices are more competitive or is that too simplistic?
Certainly house prices in my area are pretty reasonable as you can buy a fair sized 4 bed detached 3 miles from the coast for 200k.On the coast of course prices are more. Don't let everyone know though as apparently Northumberland is the least populated county in England and we want it to stay that way!
Well Poppy usually supply Vs demand would determine prices; but we are also told there is a huge housing shortage in UK, forcing up rents. Maybe the reduction in prices is because folks cannot afford to buy - reducing demand to less than supply.
In which case it won't last because Landlords will just buy more for rent, increasing demand once again.
In short, with my retired economist hat on, it is a blip and prices will soon shoot "north" again.
Amos.
We live in a rural area of Herefordshire, there is a new estate of houses being built on the outskirts of our village, and another in village four miles away, they are selling like hot cakes. Construction carries on here.
Jackie
You cannot use local examples for the overall construction industry.... The recessed quarters are widely reported and many of the very large construction companies aren't getting the large contracts they were - that is usual in a Tory government, less public infrastructure and buildings, but this recession in construction is much bigger.... it is the result of a lean couple of years leading to 2 x quarters where it is regarded as in recession.
The worry is that this often heralds an overall recession...
