French Election

[Poppy]

A good article Lloyd but to my mind nothing new although of course it does show that Germany is worried about Brexit.
It so annoys me that Merkel and others keep repeating the obvious though as don't we all know that we cannot have our own rules on immigration and stay in the single market? How many times does it have to be said?
In fact rather than "worried" as in my first para perhaps I should have put panicking?

[Jimgym]

Aww Lloyd, I got slightly confused, you know, because you switch from one week, to one month, to one year to two year charts to suit your argument on the day. Thanks for recommendation of opticians,though its not needed. Now if I can make a couple, firstly get a farrier to remove those blinkers, and secondly, maybe a chiropractor, you know for that bad back you must have from moving the goalposts so often, as has been mentioned before. Now, have a great day but watch out for calamitous falls.

[cyprusgrump]

A good article Lloyd but to my mind nothing new although of course it does show that Germany is worried about Brexit.
It so annoys me that Merkel and others keep repeating the obvious though as don't we all know that we cannot have our own rules on immigration and stay in the single market? How many times does it have to be said?
In fact rather than "worried" as in my first para perhaps I should have put panicking?

Panicking sums it up nicely...

It is a tough square to circle for them isn't it...? The UK was one of the largest net contributors to the budget, Germany and France don't want to/can't afford to contribute more and the other 25 want to remain on the gravy train receiving the EU's largess...

What to do...?

[Jimgym]

The pound has weakened because of election jitters. It is at its lowest level in 2 months according to Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ord-highs/ Added this to save people reading whole article: A YouGov poll published late on Thursday, the first since the Manchester terror attack, put the Conservative Party on 43pc, down one percentage point compared to a weak ago, while Labour gained 3 points.

The opinion poll jitters undermined the pound, causing a sharp drop in the local currency. It dropped by more than 1.4pc against the US dollar to a one-month of $1.2775, while it sank to its lowest level in two months against the euro of €1.1428

[Poppy]

Goodness me the Telegraph cannot spell now - a weak ago - do you think they mean a week ago?!!

[cyprusgrump]

Though it grieves me to say it I am being proved right. The pound continues to weaken...and what will be extremely challenging negotiations haven't yet started. My instinct tells me that the pound will not bounce back up in the next few weeks, as all recent Brexit news has been negative (per stories below). I expect the pound to go much lower during the negotiations and this will once again have an adverse effect on inflation. In turn this will exacerbate the public's already weak 'feel good' factor.

But, but, but.... you assured us recently that the Pound was 'trading within a range'...

That it has been trading in a range for some time is evident from the Yahoo chart below. Pending any substantive news either way, it will continue to do so.

Which was in stark contrast to your earlier statements about the pound 'plummeting'...

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

In fact, it 'plummeted' as high as £1 = €1.19

But now it is falling again 'due to Brexit' is it...?

As Jimgym points out, that isn't strictly true...

Pound Down As Corbyn Gets Closer

This morning’s YouGov/Times poll (Con 43% vs Lab 38%) has knocked the pound, which fell against all of its 16 major peers this morning. Sterling has touched $1.2858 today, a two week low. Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank told Bloomberg:

“Sterling correlates well with anything that shows a Tory majority and vice versa, so if you’ve got this situation where the majority closes right down, it may come to a critical level where it may not have a sufficient number of seats in the house. The market doesn’t like that.”

City jitters…

[cyprusgrump]

CG I sometimes wonder how long you spend composing your nit-picking twaddle (which I'm sure only you understand).

Fact is the pound is losing value. It remains within, but is close to the bottom of, it's more recent trading range. It might just bouce back up again...though I have my doubts as the general election and, crucially, the point at which negotiations start draws close. If negotiations go badly it could drop significantly below it's current range.

There, is that too simple for you

And did you read the articles about falling consumer confidence as the effects of Brexit become felt?

Pray tell us...

What amazing , previously untold or unrevealed aspect of Brexit was unfurled this week that caused the Pound to plunge...?

Or could it simply be that the polls suggesting a Corbyn surge might be the cause of the weakness in the Pound as I and others have suggested...?

I do laugh at your posts, I laugh at the way you hide away from 'Politics' when the Pound is up to hide your embarrassment after posting this...

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

And then jump back when the Pound is down a bit... Although it is still higher than post-Brexit October...

Although, I have to say, I admire the thickness of your skin - coming back and re-posting having been proved completely and utterly wrong about your predictions - and then claiming you where right all along! - requires some gumption!

Good for you! I guess your claim that you 'always win' requires you to do so...?

[cyprusgrump]

Not guido, not Breitbart, not the Daily Express...but the Business section of today's Sunday Times

A wake-up call for those fans of Brexit who all along have claimed that "everything'll be alright on the night".




Would like to have posted a clearer, slightly bigger, article but the forum software would not let me (whereas it has in the past).

I presume you have contacted them and pointed out that 'Brexit hasn't happened yet'...?

[Jimgym]

Not guido, not Breitbart, not the Daily Express...but the Business section of today's Sunday Times

A wake-up call for those fans of Brexit who all along have claimed that "everything'll be alright on the night".




Would like to have posted a clearer, slightly bigger, article but the forum software would not let me (whereas it has in the past).

I presume you have contacted them and pointed out that 'Brexit hasn't happened yet'...?

No, CG, remember, anything bad, oh that's due to Brexit, anything positive, oh that doesn't count because Brexit hasn't happened yet. Careful of low flying goalposts, and gloaters. Oh and don't forget the cardinal rule. The EU hold all the aces.

[Jimgym]

Lloyd, may I remind you yet again of what you have constantly said, Brexit hasn't happened yet, therefore nothing is certain. Yet all you do is constantly find negative articles that contain ifs and maybes. Sterling has always gone up and down, it's what currencies do. Yet each time it moves you try and blame Brexit despite evidence to the contrary. I'm not really interested in posting tit for tat articles, its tedious in the extreme. However there is plenty of potentially very positive news out there, which you will never see of course. But to repeat your mantra, Brexit hasn't happened yet.

[Poppy]

Oh well that is a new one on me so we are going to be isolated from 27 EU states now? I presume that isolation means there will be no security sharing,no trading etc etc? Re good news did I not read that our export figures were well up this month and despite this the pound dropped due to Labour closing the gap in the Polls and nothing at all to do with BREXIT?
Now if the market is this jittery just because Labour has gone up a couple of points then you had better prepare for a plunge should they do the unthinkable and actually win!

[Pete G]

Now if the market is this jittery just because Labour has gone up a couple of points then you had better prepare for a plunge should they do the unthinkable and actually win!

If Corbyn is the new PM at the end of the General Election, I suspect a plummeting stock market will be one of the least of the UK's problems.

[Dominic]

I suspect the fall before the election will be because of Brexit, and the rise afterwards will be because the election result has removed some uncertainty in the market.

Now, what's wrong with that logic?

[cyprusgrump]

Lloyd, may I remind you yet again of what you have constantly said, Brexit hasn't happened yet, therefore nothing is certain. Yet all you do is constantly find negative articles that contain ifs and maybes. Sterling has always gone up and down, it's what currencies do. Yet each time it moves you try and blame Brexit despite evidence to the contrary. I'm not really interested in posting tit for tat articles, its tedious in the extreme. However there is plenty of potentially very positive news out there, which you will never see of course. But to repeat your mantra, Brexit hasn't happened yet.

HiC is in the unenviable position of trying to support two opposing views simultaneously.

I think they call it cognitive dissonance...?

On one hand the clock starts on June 23rd 1016 and anything negative since is 'Because Bexit'... Even when evidence to the contrary is provided.

On the other, anything positive since or merely pointing out that the Pound isn't plummeting, in free fall, etc. is met with 'Brexit hasn't happened yet'... Even when evidence to the contrary is provided.

A difficult square to circle!

I suspect the problem is as you say, he exists in a 'echo chamber' of his own biased opinions...

He obviously gets his news from Yahoo, reads The Times, probably watches the BBC News, listens to The Today Programme etc... To be fair he probably never hears or reads anything positive about Brexit (or negative about the EU).

And of course, anything from a non-approved source is immediately dismissed:

Not guido, not Breitbart, not the Daily Express...but the Business section of today's Sunday Times

Still, it will be interesting to see what the election brings. If Corbyn wins and the Pound falls further even though he won't deliver Brexit then HiC will be been proved completely wrong.

If May wins and the Pound strengthens even though she promises Brexit then HiC will be been proved completely wrong.

Interesting...

[Jimgym]

From today's Telegraph, further proving ( if that was needed) that Lloyd is once again completely and utterly wrong to blame the latest sterling fall on Brexit.
"The pound has recouped some of its steep recent losses thanks to a series of election polls all putting Prime Minister Theresa May on course for election victory.

Sterling was hammered last week with its biggest weekly decline since November as opinion polls appeared to be less optimistic about the Conservatives after a tough week for the party."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -recovery/

[cyprusgrump]

As Dominic suggests, It is possible - indeed probable - that the pound will recover (for a while at least) following a Conservative win. However, any such gains will be very short-lived. Once the start of Brexit negotiations draws near (very soon after), GBP will once again come under pressure. If negotiations go well and the UK secures more or less unfettered access to the single market - and secures a lower-than anticipated withdrawal fee from the EU - the pound could well bound away. However, those are big 'ifs'...and personally I think they are most unlikely to happen. This will have a serious impact on the value of the pound subsequently.

But to pick up on the points raised by CG and Jimgym: the General election was only announced about a month ago. Are you seriously suggesting that Sterling's collapse over the past year was caused by a remarkable piece of foresight - indeed clairvoyance - on the part of the currency markets? Really?? In reality, minor falls or gains caused by pre-election jitters are merely tinkering at the edges of a currency seriously impaired by the outcome of the referendum.

I'm not a Guardian reader, but I couldn't help smile when I came across this article on Yahoo. Though outwardly about Trump's recent travels abroad, the way in which the UK has inflicted Brexit upon itself gets a deserved airing. My bold.

Donald Trump is the world’s worst tourist – but at least he makes Brits abroad look better
Stuart Heritage, The Guardian, 28 May 2017

With every breath of his trip, Trump has managed to carve out an image of a terrified old man several leagues out of his depth.

Of all the things that Brexit has ruined – up to and including the ability to make civil conversation with your dad – foreign travel has to sting the most. Get an aeroplane anywhere and you’ll understand what I mean. Almost overnight, the predominant national stereotype around the world has become the Self-Sabotaging Brit.

Unless you happen to go somewhere brimming with expats, all British holidaymakers this summer can be expected to be treated with outright pity. We’ll be met with sad glances and bewilderment in lobbies and cafes, seen as the morons who willingly flung themselves into a threshing machine thanks to a displaced sense of global importance. We’ve become the village idiots of the world, seen as doltish and shortsighted and proud, and nobody can quite understand why the hell we’ve done this to ourselves.

It’s an awful situation to be in, because it upsets the natural order of things. We’re the ones who are meant to sneer at foreign tourists; coming over here with their garish backpacks and eating at all the wrong restaurants and becoming baffled to the point of tears by our strictly upheld escalator etiquette. We’re supposed to look at them, being ferried between designer outlet villages like cattle, and feel an overwhelming sense of superiority. After all, we’re Britain. At one point we probably owned wherever it is they’re from, plus we won Eurovision 20 years ago. Our entitlement is spectacularly well-earned.

But, oh no, instead we’ve got to spend our richly deserved two weeks off work forlornly attempting to justify Brexit to a group of strangers who won’t stop acting like they’ve just discovered an on-the-run lobotomy patient. It’s a tragedy – and, worse, a self-inflicted one – but at least we might have just stumbled across an out. That out, needless to say, is Donald Trump.

I forgot to add The Guardian into the list of biased publications that shouts, "BREXIT IS BAAAAAD" into your echo chamber!

[Poppy]

A bit of a u turn here Lloyd ? Covering all eventualities and conceding that ,although unlikely, BREXIT negotiations may go well!!!
Ever likely you are never wrong!!

[Jimgym]

Possibly the most ridiculous and risible article I have ever read. Riddled with cliches and half baked thinking, with situations that will only exist in the authors head. Strung together to satisfy the desperate need of those Remainers who see themselves as saviours of Britain and all that is right. To reinforce their feelings of moral superiority whilst desperately trying to paint Leave voters as stupid and pitiable. My pity goers to the sad few who actually believe that sort of rubbish.

[cyprusgrump]

No U-turn at all Poppy; just giving the most likely scenarios (echoed by the article below). So far I have been pretty much right on ALL my predictions with regard to the run-up to Brexit;

No, your claims and assertions have been demonstrably false time and time and time again...

No wonder you claim that you always win arguments - I can see now that you actually believe you do!

[Jimgym]

No U-turn at all Poppy; just giving the most likely scenarios (echoed by the article below). So far I have been pretty much right on ALL my predictions with regard to the run-up to Brexit;

No, your claims and assertions have been demonstrably false time and time and time again...

No wonder you claim that you always win arguments - I can see now that you actually believe you do!

Ah but don't forget CG, The E.U. hold all the aces and goalposts are there to be moved.