Coptic Storms

[Dominic]

Certainly sounded like a gale in Polemi, and the leaves in the pool would agree.

[cyprusmax47]

The story of the Coptic winds in Cyprus is relatively easy to proof since we
have wind parks in different areas of the country. At Archive of Total Daily System
Generation from EAC one can put any dates from the past to see how much was
produced from wind power. Everything >100 MW indicates good wind (cursor on green line)
http://www.dsm.org.cy/nqcontent.cfm?a_id=2741

It makes no sense to me when someone living in a small valley away from sea
tells us in Paphos that there is wind or not...
Max

[Devil]

Devil, if you'd been at our house last night you'd have witnessed two gales. I had to pop around the back of our house to secure something, and I was fearful because there was so much lightening and felt I was taking my life into my hands.

Without getting into pedantics I feel that what we experienced last night was truly a gale.

Sorry, strong gusts do not make a gale. The U.S. National Weather Service defines a gale as 34–47 knots (63–87 km/h, 17.5–24.2 m/s or 39–54 miles/hour) of sustained surface winds. Note the word that I emphasised. Strong gusts over a period, such as is common during storms, can never constitute a gale. Other authorities give similar definitions with the emphasis on sustained, although the details may vary.

Where I am, inland, a true gale on the coast would be attenuated by the topography and would probably be classed as Fresh or Strong Breeze. The single strong gust I measure this morning of 10.8 m/s would be classed as Strong Breeze if it had been sustained, which it wasn't. This was an event caused by the thermal gradients of the storm; in French, it is called bourrasque and the nearest I can find in English is squall. I suggest that what you experienced was a squall

A squall is a sudden, sharp increase in wind speed that is usually associated with active weather, such as rain showers, thunderstorms, or heavy snow.[1] Squalls refer to an increase in the sustained winds over a short time interval, as there may be higher gusts during a squall event.[2] ...
The term "squall" is used to refer to a sudden wind-speed increase, both historically and in the present day. In 1962 the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defined that to be classified as a squall, the wind must increase at least 8 m/s and must attain a top speed of at least 11 m/s, lasting at least one minute in duration. ... Usually, this sudden violent wind is associated with briefly heavy precipitation.

(Wikipedia, my emphasis)

Certainly, my weather station has not shown any sustained winds in the last 24 h. The nearest was yesterday between 14:00 and 18:00 (see the graph as per my last post, showing average sustained winds (blue line) up to 2.6 m/s at 14:51.

Sorry, but meteorology, being somewhat scientific (the rest witchcraft!) does like to define its terms and I can be categorical that I have not measured any sustained winds, be they gales or lesser breezes, since 7 o'clock last night.

[Tankmanchris]

As far as the Coptic Calendar is concerned, there may well be no scientific evidence to support but I find it fascinating how often the dates tie in with actual storms and gales, within a parameter of +/- 2 days.

Take February of this year: 3 Coptic storms ±2 days = 15 days. What are the chances of any Feb. storm hitting one of them? 15/28 or 53.5%. As it happens, this year, the highest wind speed was 12.9 m/s on day 16, but cannot qualify as Coptic, as it was a North Wind. In fact, the only days that the wind was in the Coptic quarter (S-SW) were days 06, 22, 23 and 24 with a high of 5.1 m/s, in NOAA style reports.

Devil,

At the age of 66 I am still keen to learn, as are most others I would suspect.

I fail to believe, however, that many will evaluate the facts and figures you quote in a discussion which I believe was primarily intended to draw attention to the high level of coincidence or accuracy regarding the "Coptic Storms Chart".

As I lokked out last evening I perceived what in my eyes was a storm, it was the 10th of March. Accuracy or coincidence? I don't know but I am not going to consult Old Moore's or it's Mediterranean equivalent nor start splitting hairs.

[Dominic]

I am sure the terms "gale" and "storm" were in use long before any scientist tried to quantify them.

[Dominic]

In the experiment I am doing in this thread, I am happy to record a score for the coptic calendar. We now have to see what happens on March 20th.

And going on from that, in the next season, starting September, we could have a Fantasy Coptic Calendar League. Where people submit 13 dates and we see who is the most mystic by the end of the season.

Seriously though, it would be interesting to compare the coptic calendar against a random sample of 13 dates.

[PolemIan]

I too am keen to learn, even at my advanced age of 50.5, from where I was not sleeping in
Polemi last night conditions were:

Rain level : pissing down with hail and rain
Lighting activity: hammer House of horror level, tending to 'it's alive" power levels
Wind: blowing a hooley, though that may have been down to the amount of brocolli and cauliflower consumed over the last two days.

Not looking forward to driving Larnaca tomorrow afternoon!

Ian

[PhotoLady]

Here are some photos of gales all over the UK

[cyprusmax47]

More concerning is the high air pollution this morning between 8am and 12am
with PM 2.5 prediction of 150-170 units. (to find on: Useful Information at General page)

http://aqicn.org/forecast/europe/#s:2938

[cyprusmax47]

Forgot to mention: to open the window for that you have to click
on Paphos and click on full report.... it showing very nice the situation.
Max

[trevnhil]

Well there has certainly just been a storm here above Polemi.. Thunder, Lightning, torrential rain, Hailstones and very high winds..

Apologies for one letter wrong in my spelling that I was picked up on by Austyn 7.

Trev..

[Dominic]

Yes, a solitary cushion I forgot to put back in the shed is now looking very sorry for itself.

We now have to see what happens on March 20th, which is the next predicted Coptic Storm.

[Devil]

2017-03-12_095412.png (195.84 KiB) Viewed 8745 times

The above shows there has been a sustained wind from about 05:00 on. Here it has reached a 'Strong Breeze' in a couple of places and is likely to reach 'Near Gale' or even possibly 'Gale' on the coast. (I detest these imprecise Beaufort Scale terms, which were dreamed up over 200 years ago.) It is currently in the SSE to SE quarter, outside the 'Coptic' criteria. Interestingly, in lulls, the direction is typically 150-155° but occasionally veers to 170-175° with higher sustained wind speeds.

I see my forecast at 09:00 mentions 'Near Gale' but with speeds of 8-14 m/s. Up to now, we've peaked at 11.3 m/s with a 10 minute average of 6.7 m/s. I would class this as 'Strong Breeze', for the moment. Should be better tomorrow. http://weather.bnellis.eu/forecast/

Not much rain today, yet. We had one small shower at 04:49 and have just had some thunder but little rain, totalling 0.8 mm since midnight. As I write, I can hear distant thunder.

[Devil]

For the posters above who cannot spell the weather condition 'lightning' - - - - 'lightening' refers to a pregnancy condition concerning the position of the uterus!

Also lightening before death a revival of the spirits supposedly occurring just before death.

[Devil]

In the experiment I am doing in this thread, I am happy to record a score for the coptic calendar. We now have to see what happens on March 20th.

And going on from that, in the next season, starting September, we could have a Fantasy Coptic Calendar League. Where people submit 13 dates and we see who is the most mystic by the end of the season.

Seriously though, it would be interesting to compare the coptic calendar against a random sample of 13 dates.

For it to be interesting, please also note so-called 'Coptic' weather outside the cited dates. For example, there could be some Wednesday to Friday of this week.

[Dominic]

Have fans of the coptic calender ever claimed to highlight every weather pattern though?

I would have thought merely comparing it against a series of random dates would suffice. Mind you, given that the easiest way to check those dates will be to make a note of whenever the weather turns really bad, I guess your wish will be answered.

You will of course be able to offer up your own 13 dates selected by you non-randomly as well. Now that would be interesting!

[Dominic]

Right, on March 20th it is supposed to be "Big Sun Gale". We shall see...

[PaphosAL]

Right, on March 20th it is supposed to be "Big Sun Gale". We shall see...

My bet is that it will happen, 48 hours either side of March 20th, as predicted in the ancient Coptic Storm tables. If not, I shall eat my baseball cap...

Remember that this event usually occurs around the time of the Spring Equinox (when the clocks go forward 1 hr in the Northern Hemisphere)

Cheers- AL

[Devil]

Unfortunately, my anemometer is on the blink, so can't follow the non-existent Coptic gales until I get a replacement.

[PaphosAL]

Unfortunately, my anemometer is on the blink, so can't follow the non-existent Coptic gales until I get a replacement.

That sounds to me like a total Cop(tic)out, you naughty Devil...

If it sounds windy and like a Gale outside, just pop your head outside on the windward side, 'n judge it for yourself! Today in Luton UK we have a brisk 20mph SW wind. We don't need an anemometer to tell us this, as we can hear from it well and truly from inside our house, LOL!

Cheers- AL