The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

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Lofos-5
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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Lofos-5 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:20 pm

Devil wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:27 pm
I thought that Theresa was the UK's worst PM, ever. I was wrong and I'm flabbergasted that I have changed my mind so quickly :(
This article in the Economist argues thst BoJo and TM are in fact very similar:

Theresa 2.0
A sense of déjà vu in Downing Street

Historical parallels with Boris Johnson, Britain’s new prime minister, abound. Mr Johnson’s acolytes compare their leader to Winston Churchill, who also once helped Britain out of a pickle in its relations with Europe. Smart alecs opt for George Canning, a fellow Old Etonian with populist tendencies, who became prime minister in 1827—and died in office after just 119 days. David Lloyd George, a Liberal prime minister whose time in office combined huge constitutional changes, political chicanery and enthusiastic infidelity, also fits.

Yet the better comparison is with a more recent and less likely prime minister: Theresa May. Mr Johnson and Mrs May are different species. She was determinedly dull, while he is unstoppably jolly. She ascended to the highest office by careful management of a cabinet job, whereas he almost torpedoed his career with a dodgy stint as foreign secretary. Mrs May embodies a strand of curtain-twitching suburban Conservatism. Mr Johnson represents the party’s wing of cavalier public-school bons vivants. Yet these different political animals have strikingly similar strategies.

Team Johnson has cornered itself on Brexit, painting negotiating red lines with the same enthusiasm as Mrs May. Mr Johnson has promised to take Britain out of the European Union by October 31st, just as Mrs May pledged to do so by March 29th—the missed deadline that, in effect, sealed her fate. Both prime ministers’ Brexit strategies have at their heart the threat that “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Injecting that phrase into the bloodstream of British politics was one of Mrs May’s few successes as a political communicator. Fatally for her, she turned out not really to believe it, chickening out when the possibility of leaving with no deal arrived in March. Mr Johnson’s team in Downing Street have adopted the same mantra, and insist that, unlike her, they will hold their nerve. They may secretly suspect that their promise will never be tested, as Parliament is plotting to force an election rather than allow the country to be dragged out of the eu without a deal.

The possibility of an election gives rise to the next similarity between the May and Johnson regimes: their serene confidence that a vote will lead to a Conservative victory. The same thinking dominated in the spring of 2017, when Mrs May plotted her snap general election. Such a victory was to be built on Leave-voting constituencies in the Midlands and the north, with voters flocking to the Tories on a pledge of a pure Brexit. Mr Johnson’s electoral pitch is the same. In his first speech as prime minister he spoke of “answering at last the plea of the forgotten people and the left-behind towns”, just as Mrs May pledged to right the “burning injustices” that led to the Brexit vote. When it came to the election, Mrs May framed it as a battle between the people and an establishment determined to thwart their will. If mps do force an election, Mr Johnson would play a similar tune, with what aides describe as a “people versus the politicians” campaign.

Even the coverage of their advisers has been similar. Westminster is given to “Life of Brian” syndrome, in which a single bag-carrier is designated as a political messiah. For Mrs May, it was Nick Timothy, a bald Machiavelli who fell out with David Cameron while in government and spent a hiatus from politics composing forthright blogposts, before finding himself in Downing Street. For Mr Johnson, it is Dominic Cummings, a bald Machiavelli who fell out with David Cameron while in government and spent a hiatus from politics composing forthright blogposts, before finding himself in Downing Street.

Despite their different styles, the presentation of the two prime ministers is oddly familiar. Mr Johnson, who prides himself on his campaigning skills, shuffles between photo opportunities, agreeing only to carefully staged pool interviews, as was Mrs May’s wont. Although Mr Johnson looks comfortable chatting to farmers or petting their livestock in a way that Mrs May never could, the strategy is the same: keep the prime minister away from the press. This should be little surprise. Staffers from ctf Partners, a political consultancy that oversaw Mrs May’s bungled 2017 election, have taken roles in Mr Johnson’s operation.

Once more, with feeling
That a strategy failed once does not mean it will always fail. Mrs May’s former aides moan that figures such as Philip Hammond, her chancellor, hamstrung the prime minister by refusing to play along with her pantomime preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Mr Johnson’s team has seen off this problem by selecting a cabinet of true Brexit believers and a few former Remainers who have kissed the ring. Labour gained 20 points during the course of the 2017 election campaign, a feat it may struggle to repeat. In calling her snap election, Mrs May looked opportunistic—an ugly trait for a politician whose selling point was a sense of duty. Mr Johnson may be forced into one, or at least look as if he was. Grand political realignments also take time. The 2017 election was called only ten months after the Brexit referendum. Now, after three years of incessant argument, people identify more strongly with their vote in the referendum than with a political party. It may be that the authors of Mrs May’s strategy were merely ahead of their time.

Yet the May-Johnson approach still suffers from gaping flaws. An election cannot be won with the votes of Leavers alone. Nabbing seats from Labour in pro-Brexit areas is pointless if Remainer seats in London suburbs and university towns are lost. Mr Johnson may frame an election as a plebiscite on Brexit, but it will be voters who decide which topics matter. Mrs May, astonishing as it may now seem, was once wildly popular, entering office with an approval rating of 35. Mr Johnson’s is -7. And whereas Mrs May had options when she became prime minister—a majority, a malleable mandate from the referendum and a public less divided than today—Mr Johnson has none of these. The new prime minister has taken the path of May Mark 2. It is a treacherous one.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Jimgward » Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:59 am

The U.K. gdp is collapsing...
And this is still with some stockpiling for Brexit going on. (But that has been happening for a year now).

Strip out the fear of Brexit effect and it looks very bleak for the UK economy.

London has some specialists in the finance area but the best of them can be induced to leave. Over time if London shrinks as a financial center, what is left for the UK?

What does the UK do that few other places can?

Rolls-Royce is a serious player in the jet engine world but that is one of the few exceptions. There aren’t too many technology leaders, innovators, or global titans that are based in the UK.
That is the real threat. The UK makes very little that the EU cannot source internally.

For a population the size of the U.K., it has very little that the EU must have.


The sad truth is that the UK economy has done well from being an English speaking country within the EU. Non-EU countries looking for a base in the EU picked the UK primarily because of language and because it was inside the wire. UK management and workforce’s aren’t noted for their productivity. Those facilities can go elsewhere if the main reason for selecting the UK has gone.

Finance? It will take a while but this will now be a rearguard action trying to slow the decline rather than prospering.

The UK will end up practicing financial piracy to make up for the shortfall

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kingfisher
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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by kingfisher » Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:55 am

If anyone is interested in verifiable facts, please read Deloitte’s January 2019 report. This is from the largest accounting and auditing firm in the world:
• “Deloitte analysis shows that 3,900 UK inward investment projects in the past three years brought in $140 billion of capital –more than France and Germany combined
• 57% of Fortune 500 companies have their European headquarters in the UK
• Impact of Brexit on foreign investor sentiment yet to be seen but report highlights need to maintain a pro-growth, open and stable business environment to keep up investment
The UK attracted more foreign direct investment (FDI) than any other country in Europe between 2015 and 2018, with nearly four thousand projects bringing in more capital investment than second and third placed Germany and France combined. Analysis in Deloitte’s ‘Power Up: UK inward investment’ report also reveals that the UK ranks second only to the US on the global stage in terms of number of inward investment projects. During this period the UK attracted 6.7% of global FDI (Germany and France attracted 5.7% and 3.6% respectively)….” [More]

https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/p ... eport.html

[Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, commonly referred to as Deloitte, is a multinational professional services network. Deloitte is one of the "Big Four" accounting organizations and the largest professional services network in the world by revenue and number of professionals. Wikipedia
CEO: Punit Renjen (Jun 1, 2015–)
Headquarters location: New York, New York, United States
Revenue: 43.2 billion USD (2018)
Number of employees: 286,200 (2018)
Founder: William Welch Deloitte
Subsidiaries: Monitor Deloitte, Deloitte Deutschland]

Jon.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Les Bean » Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:07 am

Screenshot_2019-08-10_110201.jpg
Screenshot_2019-08-10_110201.jpg (139.49 KiB) Viewed 689 times
Fair enough, but that report is from January, and has an important, and after yesterday's gdp figures, relevant lead in

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kingfisher
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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by kingfisher » Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:12 pm

Thank you Firefly. Always glad when you brighten up this "slough of despond" with your feisty posts.
Jon.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:19 am

kingfisher wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:12 pm
Always glad when you brighten up this "slough of despond" with your feisty posts. Jon.

Sorry, where was that? Must have missed it :shock:

So Kingfisher, at this stage of the UK's imminment departure from the EU, would you like to run through a list of the positives as you see them.

Just one or two, if you can can't manage a list.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by PhotoLady » Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:34 am

And then 53% go and vote for someone with the name of Dick Braine, really we couldn't look more like idiots if we tried....
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... w-18889835
It is I, LeClerc :lol:

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Les Bean » Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:58 am

PhotoLady wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:34 am
And then 53% go and vote for someone with the name of Dick Braine, really we couldn't look more like idiots if we tried....
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... w-18889835
😂😂👍

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Jim B » Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:14 am

kingfisher wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:12 pm
Thank you Firefly. Always glad when you brighten up this "slough of despond" with your feisty posts.
Jon.
I'm certain John Bunyan would have jumped into the slough of despond with us Remainers.
Reading posts from people in total denial is enough to make anyone want to dive head first into the bog of dispair.
Taking in the comment " there's no shortage of drugs in the UK because we're alright" is like saying there's no knife crime in London because I haven't been stabbed.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Firefly » Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:44 am

Jim B

Who posted the quote you have copied please ? I must have missed it.

Lloyd

Read through a few, you may find one or two :lol:
It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Jim B » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:00 pm

Firefly wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:44 am
Jim B

Who posted the quote you have copied please ? I must have missed it.

Lloyd

Read through a few, you may find one or two :lol:
It was Kingfisher Jackie, just a few posts above.

Jim

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:21 pm

Just like them all, pure hypocrites. My bold.

Brexit enforcer Cummings’ farm took €235,000 in EU handouts
The Guardian Jamie Doward and Josh Sandiford•10 August

Image

Boris Johnson’s controversial enforcer, Dominic Cummings, an architect of Brexit and a fierce critic of Brussels, is co-owner of a farm that has received €250,000 (£235,000) in EU farming subsidies, the Observer can reveal.

The revelation is a potential embarrassment for the mastermind behind Johnson’s push to leave the EU by 31 October. Since being appointed as Johnson’s chief adviser, Cummings has presented the battle to leave the EU as one between the people and the politicians. He positions himself as an outsider who wants to demolish elites, end the “absurd subsidies” paid out by the EU and liberate the UK from its arcane rules and regulations.

But his critics say the revelation that Cummings has benefited from the system he intends to smash underscores how many British farmers are reliant on EU money that would evaporate if the UK leaves.

An Observer analysis of Land Registry documents and EU subsidy databases reveals that a farm in Durham, which Cummings jointly owns with his parents and another person, has received roughly €20,000 a year for most of the last two decades.

The revelation opens Cummings up to charges of hypocrisy, as writing on his blog, he has attacked the use of agricultural subsidies “dreamed up in the 1950s and 1960s” because they “raise prices for the poor to subsidise rich farmers while damaging agriculture in Africa”.

He notoriously came up with the claim that leaving the EU would allow the UK to spend an extra £350m a week on the NHS. His blog clarified the claim, explaining “the Treasury gross figure is slightly more than £350m of which we get back roughly half, though some of this is spent in absurd ways like subsidies for very rich landowners to do stupid things”.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Firefly » Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:59 pm

Jim B

Maybe I need new glasses, I still can't find it.

Jackie
It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:31 pm

Go back 9 posts Jackie, to Kingfisher's post ;)

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Jim B » Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:02 pm

Firefly wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:59 pm
Jim B

Maybe I need new glasses, I still can't find it.

Jackie
Jackie
It's just above his post where he had his "Road to Damascus" moment when he realised he was wrong and has now become a born again Remainer. ;-)

Jim

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Jim B » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:28 pm

The article below reports that EU Citizens will face hospital charges; I wonder if that will be reciproca?

Jim

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brex ... 1565792550

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Re: The ongoing madness which is Brexit...

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:56 pm

That's my understanding Jim, and that EHIC cards will become nul and void after a No Deal departure.

Will have a big impact on Brits holidaying in Europe, as current EHIC holders will no longer have the right to free reciprocal healthcare. They will in future be 100% reliant on travel insurance, along with the handicaps and excesses which we all know accompany travel insurance.

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