British Pound slowly strengthening

[geoffreys]

Well the prophets of doom can huff and puff and say things are not as good as hoped etc etc.
The fact is that the £ now buys you more € since Article 50 was triggered.
I hoped this good news would be welcomed on this forum.
I welcome it even if some others don't!
Geoff.

[jeba]

The Euro might weaken even more in the long run - especially versus the dollar - because of Brexit. The UK has always been on the side of those countries which objected to turning the EU into a transfer union (e. g. Germany, Netherlands, Finland) and will therefore be missed by those countries which will now see their position weakened. The mediterranian countries have had their own summit meeting already and demanded a fiscal union. And their relative voting power will be much bigger once the UK will no longer have a vote in EU matters. Not good from the perspective of the other net contributors.

[Jimgward]

Well the prophets of doom can huff and puff and say things are not as good as hoped etc etc.
The fact is that the £ now buys you more € since Article 50 was triggered.
I hoped this good news would be welcomed on this forum.
I welcome it even if some others don't!
Geoff.

I think most would welcome a better exchange rate.... I certainly would! Irrespective of the cause...

I checked revolut there and showing a slight fall back to 1.1700

I believe the average rate over the past ten years had been around 1.25 - 1.30

I know we had 1.43 some 18 months ago, but that was probably falsely high...

We also had 1.02 around 5 years ago, which was falsely low....

[AlanGW]

An interesting article in todays Daily Telegraph

Undervalued’ pound tipped to strengthen by end of the year

April rally on the cards as economists predict pound will return to levels last seen in wake of Brexit vote
By Szu Ping Chan

STERLING will climb back to levels not seen since the Brexit vote by the start of next year, according to analysts who believe the currency is “significantly undervalued”.
Oxford Economics said the pound was undervalued “on a wide range of valuation metrics”, while analysts at Barclays said that, on one measure, sterling had only been cheaper against a basket of currencies during the depths of the financial crisis and the International Monetary Fund UK bailout in the Seventies.
Barclays, Nomura and Citi said near record bets against sterling would start to unwind if the initial constructive tone adopted by the UK and Brussels continued during Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump faced further hurdles in implementing reforms. Data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week showed speculative net sterling short positions stood at 104,075 contracts at the end of March, close to the previous week’s record high.
“To be that short when you’re this cheap seems like a mistake to me,” said Marvin Barth, global head of foreign exchange at Barclays.
Analysts at Barclays believe that sterling will rebound to $1.38 against the dollar within 12 months, and hit $1.32 by the end of this year. Political risks in Europe mean the pound will also climb back to its pre-referendum level against the euro of €1.30 by the start of next year, it said

[cyprusgrump]

Luckily, the Interwebz never forget....

As has been pointed out many times, Brexit has not started yet; it's still early days. Inflation for the UK is set to rise to 4% as a consequence of the pound's recent decline. Considered opinion is that the pound will decline further after Article 50 is declared, the 'negotiations' start and the new reality - a bit like Trump's presidency - sets in After that, who knows?

Inflation is 2.3% and the Pound rose after Article 50 triggered...

Patience, dear Lambros, patience.

If only you had read carefully the words I chose with great care:

"Inflation for the UK is set to rise to 4%..." (note the words "set to", as in "going towards". A verb).

"is that the pound will decline furthe after Article 50 is declared, the 'negotiations' start and the new reality...sets in". Have the negotiations started yet? Forgive me...must have missed them!

Question: If Theresa May walks away from the negotiations as the Telegraph front page today suggests she should, which way do you think the GBP will go: up or down? I'm not a gambler, but I know where where my bet would be.

To save Dominic bandwidth and space on his database, perhaps you can just clarify then when exactly you will have considered 'negotiations to have started'...?

I kind of feel they have what with the £50Bn ransom claim and the Gibraltar stuff but hey - I'm sure you know exactly when that date is. If you tell us now that will save us posting every now and again and you having to respond, "ah but this or that condition hasn't been met yet"...

You should also really give us a target for your 4% inflation claim. otherwise you are just using a 'stopped clock' argument that really has no meaning it all... Or perhaps that is the context you have chosen your words 'with great care' regarding the Pound too...?

BTW, thanks for the Lambros compliment...

Lambros, also spelled Lampros (Λάμπρος) is Greek masculine first name. Lambros means "shining, bright, radiant".

[cyprusgrump]

Negotiations can be considered to have started when the parties involved in the negotiations sit around a table, face to face and discuss/negotiate the issues at hand. Not difficult really!

I believe it could take up to six months for increases in raw material costs to feed through manufacturing to the retail chain. Many manufacturers will hold off for as long as possible before succumbing to the inevitable.

Good. We can return to this later.

Not often you can take Wikileaks to task for it's undoubted veracity, but on this occasion I fear I must.

And if your name is Lambros Lambrou, does this mean you are doubly "shining, bright, radiant"

One of the features of a good joke/insult is that you don't have to send PMs out to explain it...