Is the EU ready for turning ?

[OhSusana]

It might be quite a while before he comes back to you on that OhSusana; good news on Brexit is hard to find.

Looking like you're right.
He's written a lot of words. But no good news...

[Jim B]

Apus Apus
Considering you voted remain as you say and are now so vociferous in your defence of Brexit, did you have a "Road to Damascus" moment?
Jim

[tyelaw47]

Oh dear this is all rather tedious.There is no good news.There is no bad news. Brexit has not yet happened.

As a trained negotiator myself,albeit many years ago, nothing is decided until that signature is on the dotted line.

All this speculation is just spurious scaremongering.

[OhSusana]

Remember these types of statements -

Liam Fox says the Brexit deal will be the 'easiest thing in human history'. That's a relief, isn't it?
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/br ... 51656.html
Isn’t it reassuring that the potentially tricky business of leaving Europe, which could be awkward if we’re not careful, is in the soothing hands of Boris Johnson and Liam Fox? …..

That was just over one year ago. ))

And we still have people saying "there is no bad news". Perhaps their pensions are so large they have no idea what is going on?

Have they looked at the Pound-Euro rate for the last year or two?
The average rate in 2017 was 1.14. 2018 currently at 1.13. During the financial crisis of 2009 it hit 1.12. And then started going up.
Things go up and down, but the average over 20 years, since the euro came into being, is 1.34.
Things go up and down - yes. The problem now is that they only go down. The pound will reach an all time low over a sustained period. 2 years. By the end of this year.
And if Britain is to compete post-Brexit, it will need to stay low.

There is a headline on a different thread -
Finally, realisation seems to have appeared …. Not for some, it seems. Not yet, anyway.

[tyelaw47]

Over two years has passed since the referendum...and with less than 200 days until the UK finally leaves the EU, there is still not a coherent plan on the table...

1) which defines the UK's preferred future relationship with Europe on an economic and trading basis. In other words, will the UK remain within, or without, the single European market?

2) which states the UK's intent with regard to immgration and employment of EU citizens.

3) More and more people, now including trades unions, are calling for a second referendum, which May is completely resisting.

4) A plan which is acceptable to cabinet, itself riven with splits and factions.

5) It is generally agreed by just about everyone (from EU to government) that the Chequers deal is dead in the water.

6) It is clear that Boris Johnston, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Farage have plans to destabilise May's grip on power, which may in turn force a general election.

7) And let's not forget, not one person has yet come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem.

In the light of all the above you still believe that there is "no Bad News"

If all this,if it is to be believed,all bad news? Possibly good news for some if and I say if,the Chequers deal is dead in the water? Is a 2nd referendum for example bad news for some? It would be for me but I would suggest it might be good news for many?
Do you finally grasp what I am saying?

[tyelaw47]

Ha ha!! Your grammar is as bad as mine!!" You were said"?

[tyelaw47]

How about I post a test for you HIC? The pound /euro rate is now at 1.122,the highest it has been in the last 30 days.
Now is this good news or conversely is it bad news because it is still well below what you would wish?

[Jimgward]

Savour it.... predictions are it’s about to fall again soon..... maybe October...

[kingfisher]

Only 199 days, 23 hours, fifty two minutes and seventeen, sorry sixteen seconds till we leave. Yippee!!
Jon.

[Jim B]

Looking forward to martial law, food shortages and the old Dunkirk spirit then, Jon?

Jim

[Firefly]

[kingfisher]

I suspect you have a touch of stage fright, Jim.
The Independent and Guardian are not recommended if you are impressionable!
Jon.

[Jim B]

Never been on stage except the Liverpool Landing Stage so really wouldn't know what stage fright is. I lived through Thatchers police state when the police used to threaten us with arrest thinking we were miners on a flying picket so there's no fear there either.
I do fear for my grand kids in the UK when a few mega rich con men are just in it to line their own pockets and avoid paying tax.
Jim

[trevnhil]

I think the last time it was 1.40 was in the year before the referendum.. But certainly in January of 2016 it was 1.36..

[Jim B]

You are correct Trev, it was around 1.30 though there has been a 12% drop since then which is quite substantial don't you think?

Jim

[OhSusana]

I think the last time it was 1.40 was in the year before the referendum..

The referendum was officially announced in February 2016.
In the previous November the pound averaged above 1.40.
(Nov 1.42 Dec. 1.38 Jan 1.33 Feb 1.29 and by Oct 1.11 )

By that November (2015) the press was already full of Brexit talk. Just read the papers for November 2015. Like "Majority of UK public wants Brexit", 23 Nov., 2015. The Telegraph produced a ballot paper for Brexit one month before Cameron announced the referendum itself! ))
The rest, as they say, is history. 1.12?
The fall against the US dollar I would think is even greater.

[tyelaw47]

Ah but HIC can you not answer the question I asked? And it is really not one days exchange rate I was talking about.What I actually said was that at 1.122 the pound was the highest it had been in the last 30 days.I also asked a very simple question,namely is this good or bad news? You failed the test I'm afraid!

[Dominic]

It's fairly irrelevent. If the trend continues over the next few months, then it becomes more relevent, and is indeed very good and welcome news. But we've had many of these "tide is turning" type of posts in the past, so you should forgive everybody if they don't get excited just yet.

[Dominic]

Oh and as HiC says, prior to the announcement of the referendum, the exchange rate was around 1:40. We were monitoring it very closely at the time, as we were getting ready to move here from the UK. I see two huge whoppers spoken by some leavers at the moment (not on this site, it has to be said). The first is that Brexit had no effect on the exchange rate. The second is that remainers in the Tory party are trying to scupper Brexit. They aren't they are trying to make the best of a bad job. The problem is that all the people in power who campaigned for Brexit vanished from positions of power as soon as the vote came through.

[tyelaw47]

Who might these be then Dominic? I don't recall anyone in power who supported Brexit vanishing from positions of power as soon as the vote came through? I do recall Cameron but he hardly supported it!!! Maybe my memory is not what it should be?
Oh and again someone is putting words into my mouth that I did not say.I never suggested that the tide was turning.I never indicated whether or not I thought it was good or bad news,I merely asked HIC to say if it was good or bad at that moment in time.