What will Brexit mean for British expats? The Telegraph

[Dominic]

The "Remainers" blame the falling pound purely on Brexit, which was a factor but not the only factor or even the most significant factor. Low productivity in the UK for example is one such factor. These scaremongers want to de-rail the Brexit process. and as you allude a low pound ain't good for a seller if they are back in the UK and want the proceeds in GBP!

Geoff.

The pound plummeted after the referendum. To claim that that wasn't as a result of Brexit is just not true.

[Dominic]

The "Remainers" blame the falling pound purely on Brexit, which was a factor but not the only factor or even the most significant factor. Low productivity in the UK for example is one such factor.

Well, if that´s to explain the drop of the pound productivity seems to have decreased a lot after June 23rd.

as you allude a low pound ain't good for a seller if they are back in the UK and want the proceeds in GBP!

??? Of course it´s good for the seller because the Euros he gets paid will tranlate into the more pounds the lower the exchange rate of the GBP is.

That depends if the seller gets paid in euros. If a British seller is selling to a British buyer, then keeping most of the transaction in sterling would benefit everybody. With a lower exchange rate, it becomes less attractive for the seller IF they sell to a British buyer paying a big chunk in Sterling.

[jeba]

That depends if the seller gets paid in euros. If a British seller is selling to a British buyer, then keeping most of the transaction in sterling would benefit everybody. With a lower exchange rate, it becomes less attractive for the seller IF they sell to a British buyer paying a big chunk in Sterling.

Let´s just say that if I were they buyer I´d insist on converting the price in Euros (which determines the market value) to pounds based at the current exchange rate rather than accept a price in GBP reflecting a year-old exchange rate.

[OhSusana]

On the other hand the drop of the pound against the Euro might incentivise potential sellers since in pound terms they might still get a good price now while on the other hand cost of living in Cyprus increased for the same reason (assuming they get their income in pounds).

Agree with you, Jeba. For the British seller in Cyprus the weak pound is actually good. Of course, for British buyers it is very bad.
And that, along with the uncertainty of Brexit, is why the British are deserting their continental European homes (statistics available for Spain, show the Brits are leaving in big numbers. )

So who will replace the British for the next few years? The Chinese and Arabs will certainly move in, and statistics in Spain are showing that. But I expect also to see more German, Austrian and Dutch buyers. As prices continue to fall in Euros (or are at least stable), then properties in Spain, Cyprus, and other eurozone countries, are reasonably attractive.

How long will the uncertainty last?
The trade negotiations with Canada took 7 years. Those with Britain are going to be much more complicated.

One bright spot for potential British buyers - inflation is increasing in the UK. If that continues the Bank of England will increase interest rates and the pound will strengthen; making Cyprus property a little cheaper in relative terms.

One aside. I understand you are German, or Austrian? Do Germans have an Easter greeting? Like in Greece, they say "Christ is risen", or the Russians with "Cristos Voskres". ? Whatever, Happy Easter. )

[jeba]

One aside. I understand you are German, or Austrian? Do Germans have an Easter greeting? Like in Greece, they say "Christ is risen", or the Russians with "Cristos Voskres". ? Whatever, Happy Easter. )

Yes, I´m German. The equivalent of "Happy Easter" in Germany would be "Frohe Ostern". Being an atheist I sometimes say that on Christmas already as an expression of my personal weird humour.

[OhSusana]

Further on my suggestion that UK inflation will rise further, and thus - maybe - trigger a rise in interest rates, allied with a rise in the value of the pound - at least in the short-term - maybe - giving a brief respite to stressed potential British buyers -
This from the CBI -

Inflation was stable in March but is expected to take flight
http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/inflation-wa ... ke-flight/
CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.3% in March. Keeping inflation grounded was a sharp fall in air fares on a year ago; this was due to timing of Easter this year in relation, which meant that seasonal hikes in air fares and package holidays which occurred in March 2016 did not occur this year. As such, unwinding distortions in air fares mean that we can expect to see a jump in inflation over April. Looking further ahead, inflation will continue to pick up over the course of this year, as past falls in fuel prices unwind and the impact of the weaker pound continues to feed through....

Some analysts suggesting UK inflation may reach 3%. But - will the BoE react? 50/50 in my opinion. They may just try and ride it out. Tricky one for them.