Maggie B wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:35 pm
I do love the fact you are recording this 'stuff' Dominic. You and 'our Dev' will - I hope - be comparing statistics. X
How long you folks would have to do this to completely dismiss or prove the theory . . . . I do not know?
Interesting nevertheless.
Maggie B
Probably another thousand years or so
Definitive proof or a timeframe is impossible. We are trying to correlate random events with a hypothesis (Coptic storms can never be classed as a theory ) The operative word is 'random'. It is vaguely similar to throwing three dice (unloaded); if you do it often enough, you are sure to see 3 sixes. Will the next throw show 3 sixes as well? Maybe aye, maybe och aye! Just the same probability (0.0046) as the previous throw!
2018-02-22_134820.jpg (150.83 KiB) Viewed 7093 times
Like most serious forecasts, we restrict ours to 5 days with 'may', 'perhaps', 'possibly' and other conditional terms sprinkled in after two days. Take the new (non-Meteorological Office) forecasts that the BBC broadcast at the drop of a hat. I'll stand by my Fresh Breeze, gusting up to 8 m/s, for Sunday at this time but I could modify it, in the meanwhile, as we see the evolution.
Re: locals belief that it is earthquake weather. Do earhquakes sometimes occur during unusually hot weather, such as the sudden spike in temperatures last week, followed by unsettled weather which we are having now? I remember reading reports of seizmic events elsewhere where sometimes heavy rain and cooler weather follow an earthquake?
Just a guess.
As seismic activity occurs 10-100 km below the earth's surface, how can weather happening above the earth's surface affect it? Like Coptic storms, such myths defy the imagination.
) The operative word is 'random'. It is vaguely similar to throwing three dice (unloaded); if you do it often enough, you are sure to see 3 sixes. Will the next throw show 3 sixes as well? Maybe aye, maybe och aye! Just the same probability (0.0046) as the previous throw!
Should imagine gusts to 12 m/s on coast.
