The Price of a US-UK deal post Brexit

[Jimgward]

[Jimgward]

Link to the terms, if anyone doubts the validity. https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Su ... ctives.pdf

[ApusApus]

I'm not sure what your point in posting this is, do you agree or disagree with the terms, do you think a UK-US trade deal is a good idea or not, or do you have some other reason in mind?


Shane

[Jimgward]

I think we re about to see our NHS being privatised and costs increasing, along US lines.

Those who despise the EU trading block, are about to see agreements come into play that will eradicate controls and push us into a situation where we lose control of so many aspects of trade. The US is already creating the mechanisms to show we will not be able to ‘resist’ their goods, industries and services.

[Firefly]

Funny, I thought Obama said we would be at the back of the queue if we voted to leave the EU, seems not.

[Jimgward]

Funny, I thought Obama said we would be at the back of the queue if we voted to leave the EU, seems not.

I wish we were - what price a deal?

[Firefly]

I don't know, is this agreed ?

[ApusApus]

No, it's a "wish list", both sides will have them! It's normal to set out your stall at the start of things, then you get down to the serious business of negotiating the finer details. The US and Canada have recently agreed a new trade deal, do you seriously believe Canada has just rolled over and accepted everything the US has demanded, I don't think so!


Shane

[Firefly]

Shane

Of course not, just making the point that all politicians lie through their teeth.

Jackie

[ApusApus]

I wondered where you had gone, conspicuous by your absence!

Back to reality, where is Canada in the top global economies, they just scrape into the top 10? Where is the UK, oh let me see ………………………… No.5!

https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/th ... -the-world


Shane

[ApusApus]

I can as a matter of fact but when we leave the EU we will be trading with 1 partner, not 27, and a partner that needs us as much as we need them but then that fact seems to escape you?


Shane

[mikesjn]

Been collecting these for a week, thought they might come in handy. Like I said I voted remain, I was convinced by neither side, I have never believed it a [E]Utopia like some, it needs major reform, but I also believe you cannot reform from the outside, if reform is even possible. I went with Remain as it suits us as a couple, the status quo benefits us, like it will fail others, no other reason.
Britain is a major net contributor, when you add things in like Euro port taxes etc it is much higher than the stated 12 ish billion. One thing that has always bugged me with the EU, like our own Government, they have statisticians looking for things to do, but they cannot give exact figures, no one can give a true figure on the amount of onward exports that are through the euroports, so show as exports to the EU (I know the rough figures are believed to be 5% ish, but they could be higher, from a department that probably does statistics on a what colour socks a one eyed Romanian woman would wear on a holiday to Italy if she left home on the 1st of May, nothing to do with the EU but I get naturally curious when very important things are somehow not available. It is my nature.
Anyway, I am sure Trump and even a wonderful, perfect, liberal, Democrat president will stripe us up with a treaty. But there are other ways of striping someone up, even your so called partners do it. Even whilst you have your own citizens ready to defend them. The following articles are not rocket science, it been blatantly obvious for some years that if Germany had it's own currency it would be valued at a much higher value than the Euro, the Euro's value against other currencies are being suppressed at someone other countries expense, even a German newspaper shows you a graph, see the bottom link. Peter Bowfinger, German economist and member of the German Council of Economic Experts, quoted below suggests that Germany is not even attempting to redress the balance, I know the IMF has given them a rocket or two over their deficit, perhaps seeing the blindingly obvious. Even if the figures below are wildly inflated, half or a quarter of that figure would give a strong advantage over your supposed friends and competitors alike. We will never know if we would have benefited or lost, I would have sworn France was a number 2 gainer, seems it is not and actually takes a bit of a hit, whilst no Francophile, I can see why Macron is going after reform and why Germany is fighting him off. Germany came very close to a technical recession in the previous 2 quarters, from memory it was 0.3% shrinkage in the first quarter and 0% growth in the second! within a shadow of recession, how would a major export market drying up because suddenly your German car price jumps 10% (I believe the figure put on it was 10.6% whole car tariff), suddenly your currency based advantage has disappeared, again not rocket science, just infant school maths.

"International Monetary Fund (IMF) data suggests that at the euro’s inception, this currency distortion gave German industry a 6% competitive advantage compared with the country’s economic fundamentals."
"The Germans, with every inducement to produce, have poured effort into expansion and efficiency, improving their economic fundamentals and widening the gap between economic reality and the euro’s expression of it. The rest of Europe, most especially its periphery, has enjoyed no such positive inducements. They, understandably, have neglected productive effort, while the austerities imposed by the fiscal-financial crisis made them still less inclined to invest in the future. Their fundamentals consequently have fallen further behind. Updated IMF data suggests that by 2017 the German pricing edge built into the euro had about doubled to over 12%."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezra ... 3c214027da

This the Wikipedia page for Milton Ezrati, save you looking him up, whilst this is his opinion, based on IMF data, he has got a lot of relevant experience, so you have to take it a bit more seriously than if Nigel Farage was saying it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Ezrati

And another, this actually like a member of our Monetary Policy Committee saying it.

"In principal, the euro is a good idea. The aim is to create a big economic space without any monetary barriers, like the US. But a common space implies that member states are prepared to take each other into consideration as far as their economic, financial and wage policies are concerned. Germany benefits hugely from the euro, but in its economic policy it acts as if the single currency did not exist. This can’t be a good thing in the long term. And of course there is another issue: in countries like Greece, Italy or Spain, it was treated as if the currency could be devalued if the need arose. Monetary union means that this is no longer possible."

http://thecorner.eu/news-europe/the-eur ... any/60549/

To save you the bother, Peter Bofinger is a German economist and member of the German Council of Economic Experts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Bofinger


"A new study from the Centre for European Policy in Freiburg has shown Germany to have gained "by far the most" from the introduction of the euro. Italy and France saw a drop in prosperity over the last 20 years.
Struggling to compete

One of the main reasons for the drop in prosperity was international competitiveness, according to the report.

Before the introduction of the euro, countries were able to devalue their currencies to make their exports cheaper on the world market.

This made them more competitive globally and was a tool used to pull countries out of economic difficulty.

"The problem of the divergent competitiveness of the Eurozone countries remains unsolved," the researchers Alessandro Gasparotti und Matthias Kullas wrote.

"Greece and Italy in particular are currently experiencing major difficulties due to the fact that they are unable to devalue their currency.""

https://www.dw.com/en/cep-study-germany ... a-47675856