Roadkill

[Lofos-5]

As this topic generated quite some discussions a while ago, and will be of interest to Devil, Cyprusmax, Happy in Cyprus et al., I am copying the story below from a Leader in the Economist a few weeks back:

Electric cars
The death of the internal combustion engine

It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world

“HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

The big end

But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead. In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.
The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.

To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.

Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks (up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.

Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in traffic accidents.

Autos and autocracies

And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse, the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.

Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Roadkill"

[Devil]

I won't reply in detail but will point out one error and one omission.

The error is that in carbon-based economies for electricity generation, such as Cyprus and about 90% of other countries, the carbon emissions from the power stations used to charge the cars would exceed that of equivalent petrol cars and will double that of hybrid cars.

The omission is where is the infrastructure required to provide the massive increased demand for electricity to charge the electric vehicles? The UK estimates it will require 4-6 new power stations to meet the demands for charging a mainstream electric vehicle fleet by 2040. Carbon-free nuclear or combusting fossil fuels? Don't forget that most charging will be in the evenings when the sun doesn't shine and winds may be calmer.

The article has not really been thought through.

[ApusApus]

In addition, Mazda claim to have developed a new petrol compression ignition engine which is up to 30% more efficient so the combustion engine doesn't look dead quite yet!


Shane

[Lofos-5]

[...] so the combustion engine doesn't look dead quite yet!

No certainly not, but on a terminal decline.

Incidentally, I was sitting in a BMW i8 over lunch (the BMW show room has a decent restaurant in it here in Doha) - this hybrid goes above 250km/h and charges up in about 2 hours apparently. Mixed consumption is 2.5l/100km. It also looks like a batmobile - lol

The list price is QAR 599,000 - a mere Euro 137,000. (OK, in Europe it probably would be double with all the taxes).

A.

[cyprusmax47]

Look at Formula One p.e., all cars are hybrids, good performance only with the electric boost....

Max

[ApusApus]

Not to mention boats, tankers, tugs, navy vessels, etc .............. whatever you want to call all those sailing things!


Shane

[Bograt]

[...] so the combustion engine doesn't look dead quite yet!

Incidentally, I was sitting in a BMW i8 over lunch (the BMW show room has a decent restaurant in it here in Doha) - this hybrid goes above 250km/h and charges up in about 2 hours apparently. Mixed consumption is 2.5l/100km. It also looks like a batmobile - lol

The list price is QAR 599,000 - a mere Euro 137,000. (OK, in Europe it probably would be double with all the taxes).

A.

God, lucky you. A stunning car. I saw one last year in Peyia a couple of times, quite a machine. Sadly, but not surprisingly, my Terios could not keep up

[Lofos-5]

Maritime vehicles?

They will be OK, just needs a long extension cable

[cyprusmax47]

Makes you wonder what they're going to do with the hundreds of thousands of aircraft and helicopters which use petrol/turbine engines, most of which have lives measured in decades.

Two hours to charge a car is OK if you live in a house of your own with driveway and/or garage; but as I've said before, what if you live in an apartment block or on the busy North Circular?

No question that alternative forms of engines are coming and will come in. But it will be a very lengthy transition period and not without difficulties.

Maritime vehicles?

The start up company Lilium, Munich has already a prototype of an small aircraft/helicopter tested: the Lilium Jet, the World first all-electric.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohig71bwRUE

Max

[PaphosAL]

That is quite astonishing Max! To back you up, I found another video on exactly the same subject, that reinforces what you have posted here, about the same company. Electric VTOL flight! The mind boggles...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r3kpl5Ao5s

Cheers- AL

[cyprusmax47]

Thank's for the video about the same company which just yesterday got a boost financially as they collected 90 mio Euro for further development.
Max

[PaphosAL]

...Incidentally, I was sitting in a BMW i8 over lunch (the BMW show room has a decent restaurant in it here in Doha) - this hybrid goes above 250km/h and charges up in about 2 hours apparently. Mixed consumption is 2.5l/100km. It also looks like a batmobile - lol

The list price is QAR 599,000 - a mere Euro 137,000. (OK, in Europe it probably would be double with all the taxes).

A.

Crikey! Just to 'imperialize' your figures, we're talking top speed 156 mph here, and hybrid fuel consumption of 114 mpg. Simply astonishing!! Do you have a photo of it, please?

Cheers- AL

[Jimgward]

[Lofos-5]

BMW apparently have an engineering team to make sure that the door closing sound matches the price tag of their vehicles

After this was mentioned during lunch sure enough each team member had to sit (or drop) into the car and open the car doors to confirm that the sound was satisfactory

A.

Ps. The car looks best from behind (to see the batmobile wings)

i8.jpg (5.16 KiB) Viewed 7023 times

[PaphosAL]

Awesome! Thanks, guys...

[PaphosAL]

Maritime vehicles?

Vessels.

Come now, Lincoln, play fair, please! HIC was replying to this post:

Not to mention boats, tankers, tugs, navy vessels, etc .............. whatever you want to call all those sailing things!
Shane

So your response is not really an update nor educational, since your reply is already contained within the post that Lloyd replied to, surely?

[Dominic]

I honestly don't need any help moderating this forum Al.

[PaphosAL]

Understood, Dominic. But I was replying to Lincoln in a polite and inoffensive manner. Is there an issue with that? I wasn't trying to be a wannabee Mod. It was a friendly one on one convo twixt Lincoln and myself, where I thought he had misread another member's post out of context, that's all..

Cheers- AL

[Dominic]

Al already runs a very successful forum, and certainly doesn't need the practice. I will speak for him because I doubt he will have surfaced yet.

Anyway, shall we return to the topic in hand please, things that go brrrrrrm brrrrrrrrm without petrol...

[Lofos-5]

Anyway, shall we return to the topic in hand please, things that go brrrrrrm brrrrrrrrm without petrol...

The fully electric cars, not hybrids as the i8, apparently play recorded combustion engine sound to make the driving experience complete - a bit ironic I always thought