French Election

[cyprusgrump]

[david attenborough] So... we sit here in perfect silence awaiting the return of the elusive HIC...

It returns here just once a day... Day after day... in perfect safety long after its natural predators have taken to their nests...

Only our hidden cameras can reveal its amazing display of superiority and condescension - proclaiming though its amazing call and fluffed plumage its superior knowledge of all things Brexit related...

No doubt the HIC (with its intimate knowledge of the past, present and future exchange rates) sits pretty on its nest, smug in the knowledge that it will never have to work again...

We can but speculate on what goes through this amazing creature's mind as it surveys the inferior beings that surround it...[/david attenborough]

[Jimgym]

[david attenborough] So... we sit here in perfect silence awaiting the return of the elusive HIC...

It returns here just once a day... Day after day... in perfect safety long after its natural predators have taken to their nests...

Only our hidden cameras can reveal its amazing display of superiority and condescension - proclaiming though its amazing call and fluffed plumage its superior knowledge of all things Brexit related...

No doubt the HIC (with its intimate knowledge of the past, present and future exchange rates) sits pretty on its nest, smug in the knowledge that it will never have to work again...

We can but speculate on what goes through this amazing creature's mind as it surveys the inferior beings that surround it...[/david attenborough]

[cyprusgrump]

Meanwhile, with the pound having failed to continue it's brief ascent (which you gloated about just over a week ago) it now seems to be back on it's downward trend. Like I have said repeatedly, it's trading in a range...and in an absence of good news related to Brexit, that's where it will stay.

But you haven't repeatedly said that have you...?

You have been saying this and similar for months and posting your charts to 'prove' it...

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

Plummeting is not the same as 'trading in a range! Sorry to nit-pick!

[cyprusgrump]

Well, if you don't think the pound has plummeted from where it was a year ago, your understanding of economics is obviously different to mine. Logic dictates that a currency can't keep on plummeting ad infinitum! However, all bets are off if negotiations don't go as well as Theresa May thinks they will and plummeting may well once more become the operative word.

Now run along and nit-pick those articles...that thould keep you busy for an hour or five

Nope.

You claimed it was plummeting on March 11th.

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

Not 'trading in a range' but 'plummeting'. It wasn't. You were wrong. The Pound is higher now than it was then.

Simple enough for you...?

[Dominic]

He's right, HiC, you claimed the downward trend was continuing, and that you had to draw a line on all the peaks to see that this was the case. You also said that the peaks were getting narrower.

Since then, the pound has consistently been up.

[cyprusgrump]

He's right, HiC, you claimed the downward trend was continuing, and that you had to draw a line on all the peaks to see that this was the case. You also said that the peaks were getting narrower.

Since then, the pound has consistently been up.

Thank you.

[cyprusgrump]

Now run along and nit-pick those articles...that thould keep you busy for an hour or five

Nope.

No, I can well imagine you not wanting to accept that the many predictions made by Remainers are now coming to fruition. In addition to those articles I've also read a number of articles over the past week where employers in the UK have said that they are now experiencing difficulties in recruiting staff, as Europeans are no longer willing to take a chance on coming to the UK to work.

He's right, HiC, you claimed the downward trend was continuing, and that you had to draw a line on all the peaks to see that this was the case. You also said that the peaks were getting narrower.

Since then, the pound has consistently been up.

I'm sorry Dominic, you're wrong. The pound has not consistently been up. That it has been trading in a range for some time is evident from the Yahoo chart below. Pending any substantive news either way, it will continue to do so. As I've said many times, if negotiations go badly, or if a hard Brexit seems likely, the pound is destined to fall further. Conversely, if negotiations go well, the pound will break out of it's range and could bounce much higher. However, I see no evidence to suggest the latter outcome is likely.

Oh HiC, you are the gift that keeps on giving!

As I predicted recently, you have now resorted to the two-year chart to try and justify your position on the currency!

Oh, how you must long for the halcyon days when you could produce a 5-day chart to prove that the Pound was plummeting, yes, plummeting I tells ya!

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

So, to be clear. The point I have been making is that for months you have been claiming that the Pound is plummeting when it is clear that it has not been. It remains stubbornly at around - well, lets look at your chart - £1 = €1.1865.

The Pound may well go down (or up) as a result of Brexit. The truth is that nobody knows and as you point out when any positive news about Brexit is posted, it hasn't happened yet.

At best, your constant wailing since the beginning of the year that the Pound is plummeting, etc. is somewhat premature. You might find it cathartic to admit that instead of trying to poretend that you have always claimed something different...

Another poster messaged me earlier saying you must have a bad back from moving the goalposts around so much!

[Jimgym]

So, in conclusion the pound is not now 'plummeting' but trading in a range, as it has always done. Also, it could go up or down in the next few years depending on certain factors, as it has always done. Glad we've got that one cleared up. just a pity that some on here seem to constantly wallow, and take delight in any potentially bad news, yet ignore any positive stories. Maybe it's time they grew up.

[smudger]

Good post Jimgym!

[kingfisher]

Looking at those horrendous crevasses poor old Lloyd has to daily negotiate, I just hope the EU doesn't slap a big tax back on crampons.

[ApusApus]

So, in conclusion the pound is not now 'plummeting' but trading in a range, as it has always done. Also, it could go up or down in the next few years depending on certain factors, as it has always done. Glad we've got that one cleared up. just a pity that some on here seem to constantly wallow, and take delight in any potentially bad news, yet ignore any positive stories. Maybe it's time they grew up.

Unfortunately, the UK press doesn't seem to be interested in positive stories ............. only doom & gloom ones that sell papers!


Shane

[Dominic]

Nothing to do with giving up the ghost. More like accepting that we lost while trying to maintain a certain level of dignity in defeat.

In your earlier posts, you were gleefully forecasting the further collapse of the pound. This has not happened. Now, it may happen in the future. Who knows? But if it does, I certainly won't get any pleasure out of it. I can't help feeling that you will.

[cyprusgrump]

Nothing to do with giving up the ghost. More like accepting that we lost while trying to maintain a certain level of dignity in defeat.

In your earlier posts, you were gleefully forecasting the further collapse of the pound. This has not happened. Now, it may happen in the future. Who knows? But if it does, I certainly won't get any pleasure out of it. I can't help feeling that you will.

Excellent points...

No doubt HiC will remain in denial so perhaps we can just remind him of some of his previous posts...

Here he is using a 2-year chart to show that the Pound is 'trading within a range'...

Below is a 5 day chart. No change overall over the past 5 days; it's range-bound. When the negotitions start in earnest is when it'll start to get bumpy

Oh wait! not a 2-year chart but a 5-day chart!

Anyway, here he is convincing another poster that the Pound is 'trading within a range'...

Always "scaremongering" isn't it Geoff, whatever the source of the news. The pound is once more on a downward track and it seems the UK economy is now starting to feel the effects of this fall in value of the currency: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-services-f ... nance.html

But then again, I suppose I'm just scaremongering

And yet another post where he gives his normal positive spin and assures us that the Pound is 'trading within a range'...

Brexit has not yet formally started and it's my belief that it is when negotiations start that sterling will come under most pressure, especially if something like this comes into play: https://uk.yahoo.com/news/show-money-di ... ector.html

But for sure, currency speculators will be milking the market for every penny from this point on.

And we shouldn't leave out my favourite of all - yet more assurance us that the Pound is 'trading within a range'...

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

[Jimgym]

So, in conclusion the pound is not now 'plummeting' but trading in a range, as it has always done.

Check back on my earlier posts, I've been pointing that out to Dominic and CG for weeks.

I've also been using the two year charts for, well, it seems like ever. I check everything from 5 day to 5 year charts daily (for both pound and USD) to get a better picture of what's happening out there, but the two year chart is my favourite.

Interesting that not one single person has commented on the factual stories, whose links I provided a few days ago. People would would rather talk about nebulous stuff, rather than the consequences of Brexit which were predicted...and are now becoming reality.
I have to have a strong back to single-handedly take on you Brexiteers; seems like most remainers have given up the ghost on you lot. However, I'm made of sterner stuff and will continue to pass my observations on the fun part just about to begin: the negotiations.

Stay tuned, I'm sure you will

Oh dear. Nothing more I can say really after reading that. I'd offer you my sympathies but suspect it would be wasted.

[cyprusgrump]

In your earlier posts, you were gleefully forecasting the further collapse of the pound. This has not happened. Now, it may happen in the future. Who knows? But if it does, I certainly won't get any pleasure out of it. I can't help feeling that you will.

The pound is in freefall today, but so far remains within the pattern it has established in recent months. I'm not really affected by the ups and downs of Sterling, other than the effect it has on my very modest pensions. The only satisfaction I derive is the rather selfish one of reminding the Paphos Life rent-a-mob (this does not include you, Dominic) that I forecast 6-9 months ago that the pound would suffer very significantly as a consequence of Brexit and that the price of imports would inevitably go up, with all kinds of attendant consequences. At the time my suggestions were sneered at as scaremongering. I went on to say that if the UK failed to stay in the single market - or worse - suffered a hard Brexit, the consquences to the UK would be even worse - in fact, absolutely catastrophic. Again, rent-a-mob shouted me down. So yes, I do derive a soupcon of satisfaction when I see things going as I suggested they would...and for which I was mercilessly torn to pieces.

So now your 'proof' is no longer a 2-year view as it was on Sunday but 8 hours trading during one day...?

BTW the Pound doesn't appear to be in 'freefall' (or plummeting ) against the Dollar...

[cyprusgrump]

BTW the Pound doesn't appear to be in 'freefall' (or plummeting ) against the Dollar...

No, nor against the Mauritian Rupee or West Indian dollar but the fact remains that much of the UK's trade is done with the EU...and it is our closest and most important trading partner. Consequently the pound's relationship to the Euro is most important.

Anyway, in view of Trump's ongoing antics the USD may well fall - indeed it has been over the past week or two - so that will help bolster the pound against the USD.

You really don't seem to be able to grasp the multiple variables that affect the relationship between currencies.

Surely, if as you claim the Pound is 'plummeting' due to Brexit it would plummet against all currencies? The amount of trade transacted in a particular currency is irrelevant.

I wonder, as you are now apparently so keen on the long-term view of the Pound against the €uro (apart from today obviously when you are only interested in the trade over the past eight hours to show it is in 'freefall'), why don't you use a 5-year view...?

[Varky]

So, as this is about the French Election and not a rerun of the myriad of other threads with varying opinions of what will be and what won't, I would just like to say that I was disappointed that in his first day in office Macron shot off to see Angela Merkel. Surely as he had just won an election for president it should have been Merkel coming to see him, (that is if he is not to be Merkel's poodle). I wonder what the French electorate think of this?

[Varky]

Looking at the 5 year graph it would seem to me that the pound lost more in value in the period from the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2016, before the referendum where the result was not known and was expected to be a vote for 'Remain'.

[cyprusgrump]

The pound is in freefall today

...

And here for CG's and Jimgym's benefit is today's 2 year chart, with the pound "plummeting" (

Not wishing to burst any bubbles but the Pound is currently higher than when our resident exchange rate expert announced it was in 'Freefall' and when our resident exchange rate expert announced it was 'plummeting'... again...

[Jimgym]

The pound is in freefall today

...

And here for CG's and Jimgym's benefit is today's 2 year chart, with the pound "plummeting" (

Not wishing to burst any bubbles but the Pound is currently higher than when our resident exchange rate expert announced it was in 'Freefall' and when our resident exchange rate expert announced it was 'plummeting'... again...

Oh so it hasn't actually "plunged" then? Phew thank goodness for that. So basically it's just doing what currencies do then, fluctuating on the markets?! Which is what it has always done..... Oh dear, what will some be able to gloat about now I wonder?