Encouraging news over Brexit.

[Dominic]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKBN1WP0OO


THORNTON MANOR, England (Reuters) - A Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October to allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union in an orderly fashion, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said after what he called a very positive meeting with Boris Johnson.


With just three weeks to go before the United Kingdom is due to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc, it remains unclear on what terms it will leave or indeed whether it will leave at all.

After Brexit descended into a public row between London and Brussels earlier this week, Johnson, the British prime minister, met Varadkar at Thornton Manor in Cheshire on Thursday in a last ditch bid to avert an acrimonious divorce or another delay.

[Happy in Cyprus]

We can but hope. Fingers crossed, the alternative doesn't bear thinking about. The pound bounced this evening in response. If a deal is agreed we might see GBP reach €1.20 or more.

I realise that an impending deadline concentrates minds, but what a pity Boris didn't start negotiations earlier, instead of posing for pre-election photo ops in hospitals.

[Jimgward]

To be honest, I’m confused as to what “the deal” might be.... it appears to be May’s deal, with an amended backstop - which makes me wonder why the UK government hadn’t gotten together with the Irish government, 3 years ago! Is it arrogance? Or a dismissal of Ireland as an inferior nation? It was blatantly obvious to us all that talks with other parties and Ireland should have started earlier.

[wilky]

The trouble was the DUP would not allow the backstop under any circumstances now they have allowed checks between the UK and NI in effect a border in the Irish sea.This may not get through parliament which still leaves no deal or remain.

[Road Warrior]

Who knew ?

[boycott]

I wonder if Boris offered to give NI to Ireland to resolve the border issues, bearing in mind NI voted to remain in the EU.

[Jimgward]

It shows that the DUP represent the DUP, and not the electorate of NI, But not a chance could Boris do that, not would the RoI want it

[Jim B]

This is an interesting article about Brexit support media collusion with No 10 pedalling lies to defame Remain politicians.
Every day outrageous statements are made and no one is taken to task over them.

Jim


https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opende ... s-machine/

[Happy in Cyprus]

Meant to have posted this a few days ago. Great news of course that a No Deal has been averted. But will a Deal benefit the UK long term?

I have notably failed to ascertain from Brexiteers the advantages which they perceive Brexit will bring about, so I have little alternative but to be enlightened by former Home Secretary, Amber Rudd:



Some appropriate Tweets below the above post:

[Jimgward]

F8BA0554-B685-4C3C-A890-75FB18CE0FCA.jpeg (77.39 KiB) Viewed 1604 times

[Jimgym]

OMG quick cancel the referendum result because someone on Twitter doesn't like it. Phew! That was close!

[Jimgym]

I hope we have a "People's Vote", let's give it a new name though, say hmmmm a general election! Oh but hang on the opposition who have been repeatedly calling for a new vote don't actually want one, now they do, now the don't. You really couldn't make it up.

[Happy in Cyprus]

Welcome back Jimgym

While a People's Vote (second referendum) would be a good thing (now that peeps realise what Brexit TRULY means - as opposed to the lies peddled by Johnson and Farage at the time of the big red bus), it's quite wrong to expect people to vote for a political party not of their chosing to achieve this end.

Why should we expect people who have traditionally voted Tory, and those who have always voted Labour, to change allegiances simply to vote for the Brexit outcome they want?

So what do you think about the 4-6% hit to the economy? Will it be worth it?

[Jimgym]

A general election would be even better, see my previous post. Ah the well worn argument about the British economy going into recession etc. It didn't work for Project Fear, and I can't see it working now either! Still, George Osborne would be extremely proud of it I am sure, and we all know how well he was at predictions don't we

[Happy in Cyprus]

So your view is that the UK economy is doing well...and unaffected by Brexit? Dream on. The reality:

Companies wait for Brexit to raise prices

UK inflation fell to its lowest level since late 2016 as the end of summer sales kept clothing prices down, while economists suggested that some companies were waiting for the outcome of Brexit before putting prices up. The consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July, according to the Office for National Statistics, easing some of the pressure on consumers. Economists warned that weakness in the pound since Boris Johnson became prime minister combined with a no-deal Brexit could push up inflation again in future.

Import volumes slide after stockpiling rush

Britain’s trade deficit – the shortfall between exports and imports – narrowed in July as companies held back from buying goods from overseas. Analysts said that British firms had opted to deplete their stockpiles built up ahead of the original Brexit deadline in March, rather than place new orders with overseas suppliers. The decline in imports reverses the trend earlier in the year when companies ramped up their stockpiles, rushing to buy goods from abroad to avoid Brexit disruption and pushing the trade deficit to record levels.According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK goods and services trade deficit in the three months to Julydecreased to £2.9bn following a £15.2bn, or 8.5% drop in imports to £164.4bn.

Worse than forecast
Global economy and Brexit fears damage business activity

Activity in Britain’s private sector narrowly contracted last month, as firms nationwide hit the pause button on big spending decisions and starting new contracts as Brexit loomed. With little sign of a political breakthrough, factory output declined and construction activity slumped, according to the latest snapshots from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (Cips). Meagre growth in service-sector output, which accounts for about 80% of the economy, failed to offset a downturn in August across the board. The IHS Markit/Cips purchasing managers index (PMI) fell from 50.3 in July to 49.7 last month, on a scale where anything above 50.0 indicates economic growth. Some analysts said Britain looked likely to remain in contraction in the third quarter of 2019, marking the second consecutive three-month period of decline in GDP: the technical definition of recession.


Ref: https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... er-verdict

[Jimgym]

Wow Lloyd you really do have trouble reading and comprehending what people wrote don't you?! Can you, for my benefit and that of others reading your posts please point out where I said, suggested, or even remotely hinted "So your view is that the UK economy is doing well...and unaffected by Brexit? Dream on."

How are Europe's economies doing Lloyd? Germany doing ok is it?

[Devil]

So your view is that the UK economy is doing well...and unaffected by Brexit? Dream on. The reality:

So what? Not enough to warrant your diatribe.

[Jimgym]

https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economic ... tlook.html

We project UK economic growth to remain modest at 1.4% in 2019 and 1.3% in 2020, compared with its long-term trend rate of around 2%

For each and every negative report there is a positive one. All depends on your Brexit stance I guess

[Jim B]

I read earlier that the advertising campaign for leaving the EU was quietly dropped today by Blojo at the cost of 100 million pounds plus all the millions of fifty pence coins specially minted to celebrate leaving the EU have been scrapped costing millions; it's a good job the economy is doing so well that so much money can just be written off.

Jim

[Happy in Cyprus]

Can you, for my benefit and that of others reading your posts please point out where I said, suggested, or even remotely hinted "So your view is that the UK economy is doing well...and unaffected by Brexit? Dream on."

Perhaps you overlooked you wrote this:

Ah the well worn argument about the British economy going into recession etc. It didn't work for Project Fear, and I can't see it working now either!

From the article you posted:





Hardly the rosiest of pictures for the economy since 2016 when the referendum took place, especially with regard to febrile business investment, which will - or should be - the main driver for the UK economy going forward.