It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

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Jimgward
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It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward » Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:31 pm

Reported in Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... c-obr-says

Brexit worse for the UK economy than Covid pandemic, OBR says
Fiscal watchdog says Brexit would cut GDP by around 4% long term, while Covid impacts would hit output by a further 2%


The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”

Gross domestic product – or GDP – is a measure of the size of the economy.

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/ ... 46730.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -chairman/

The Daily Mail throws a different slant on it....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... demic.html

Tory Brexiteers' fury as UK financial watchdog claims Brexit will have a bigger impact on the economy than the Covid crisis
Office for Budget Responsibility chairman said Brexit will reduce GDP by 4%
Richard Hughes said the watchdog expects the pandemic to shrink GDP by 2%
He said in 'long term' Brexit will have a 'bigger impact' on economy than Covid
Brexiteers rubbished forecast and said OBR 'not famed' for accurate predictions

Kili01
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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Kili01 » Sat Nov 13, 2021 10:08 pm

Well, Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving...its quite hard to resist saying we told you so! Unfortunately, Brexit was not planned for properly. Boris, I seem to remember was in such a hurry to leave the EU that he chose to ignore sensible proposals from the EU to delay finalising Brexit to allow further discussions with the EU, and to give more time to have trade talks with other countries. Instead he chose to push ahead in his wild, impetuous way without sorting out all important trade deals and treaties. Also he underestimated the number of EU workers in situ until afterwards when the chronic shortage of HGV drivers, nurses, care workers, agricultural workers to name a few, caused serious problems in their essential fields of work. No wonder that the UK economy is shrinking.
Also referred to in the article was the near collapse of the NHS, understaffed and over worked, the ridiculous way that many GP's refuse to see their patients except on zoom or phone, dentists, mine included, who said he wanted to see his patients but couldn't obtain the essential PPE for months.
All in all still a dysfunctional country. My country, it makes me sad and angry to see the way its being mismanaged.
Now British Expats in EU countries are down graded to 3rd country nationals,
Dee


Jim B
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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jim B » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:58 am

The point being is who would you trust, The Daily Mail and Blojo or the OBR..

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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:52 pm

Termite, there are some positives in what you posted, but we have already lost trillions from the City of London in investments, PLUS, the UK isn’t just London. Most of the people are suffering. Petrol over £1.50 a litre, all foodstuffs up in price, shortages everywhere, shelves empty, M&S stopped Xmas food orders, import fees huge, time to get imports from 3 days to 3 weeks as overwhelmed. Fishing and Agriculture is sinking (sic) and few seem to feel we are better off in any way, Other than Rees-Mogg and his Tory chums with their sleaze. Only the super rich get richer.

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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward » Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:05 pm

https://cyprus-mail.com/2021/11/15/shel ... TO5lGpAB6s

Looks more like Shell is moving to the UK as we are more lax on taxes and climate targets and likely trading standards etc. Makes sense, we have been called a rogue state recently and we are one of the largest Money-laundering places on earth.

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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jim B » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:29 am

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A ... nwucWA&s=1

Some interesting reading showing how Export/Import companies are coping with the the new C&E procedures to Europe.

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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Devil » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:05 pm

"Brexit will have a bigger impact on the economy than the Covid crisiswill have a bigger impact on the economy than the Covid crisis"

Surprise! Surprise! Who would have thought it? Obvious, isn't it? After all, BrexIt will still be having its effects 20 years from now!

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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward » Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:55 pm

Devil won't like me posting entire article.... but....

https://www.cityam.com/brexit-and-p...a ... isruption/

The political choice of Brexit has cost UK businesses as much as the unforeseeable Covid pandemic.

British companies have lost over £250bn to Covid and an equal amount to Brexit by the end of 2021, but the Brexit tally is now rising faster,

The Centre for Economics and Business Research found that Covid-19 lockdowns had cost UK businesses £251bn by March of last year.

It revealed the value of the goods and services produced by the economy was more than £250bn lower than it would otherwise have been.

It calculated the Gross value added (GVA), which measures the value of the goods and services produced by the economy, minus the costs of inputs and raw materials needed to deliver them.

Covid-19 cost small businesses alone an estimated £126.6bn, according to the business insurer Simply Business, while a November 2021 Government report revealed the UK lost almost £365 billion in GDP from Covid overall.

Commenting on the figures, David Jinks, who is head of consumer research at delivery firm ParcelHero, said: “British businesses have had a torrid few years.”

“Brexit or Covid, which has been the heavier burden for them to bear? The shocking answer is that the entirely avoidable Brexit crisis has had as much of an impact on UK businesses as the unforeseeable Covid-19 tragedy, and its costs are still rising,” he added.


“No one could have foreseen the arrival of the pandemic and there was little that could have been done to shield UK businesses in advance. However, this is certainly not the case for the impact of Brexit on UK businesses,” Jinks said.

The confrontational handling of trade negotiations with the European Union made “a bad situation worse,” he stated.

Before Brexit had even happened, a 2020 report by Bloomberg Economics revealed that, by the end of that year, the economic cost of Brexit already exceeded £200bn in lost revenues to UK companies. It calculated the British economy was 3 per cent smaller than it otherwise would have been.

Since Brexit actually happened, on 1 January, 2021, the UK Trade Policy Observatory reveals that the reduction in trade has lost UK businesses a further £44bn.

“That breaks down to £32.5bn lost in potential imports to the UK and £11bn in exports to the EU,” Jinks pointed out.

The UK Government splashed a further £8.1bn on preparing for Brexit and the end of the transition period, according to the Institute for Government.

“In our view, that was money that should have been spent on promoting UK trade across the EU and beyond, not battening down the hatches,” noted Jinks.

The figures mean that the combined costs of Brexit and of the pandemic both equal around £250bn.

However, in the long term, Brexit could end up costing even more than Covid-19.

Thomas Sampson, Associate Professor at the London School of Economics, said: “When measured in terms of their impact on the present value of UK GDP, the Brexit shock is forecast to be two to three times greater than the impact of Covid-19.

Moreover, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) told the BBC last October that leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4 per cent.”

It is believed the effect of the pandemic will reduce GDP output by only a further 2 per cent.

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Devil
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Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Devil » Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:53 pm

Jimgward wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:55 pm
Devil won't like me posting entire article.... but....
Full marks for being right! :lol: :lol: :lol: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

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