CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

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Jimgward
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CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Jimgward » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:26 pm

The UK, is expected to immediately go into recession, IF we leave with no-deal. This would have impact on Italy and Germany in particular, where they are close to that. Mexico, Brazil, Singapore and Hong Kong are also all on the brink. China is growing at slowest pace for 3 decades.

So, not just down to Brexit, but that would be the straw to break the backs of the UK, Germany and Italy.

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Happy in Cyprus
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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:49 pm

Ha! I did post a thread about the likelihood of this happening in October last year: http://www.paphoslife.com/forum/viewtop ... =19&t=7184

No question that a No Deal would make matters much worse, but dark clouds have been rolling along the horizon for some time now.

Trumps' trade wars with China are a major driver, but economies are cyclical by nature...and the world is long overdue a downturn.

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kingfisher
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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by kingfisher » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:11 am

No Jim, the UK need not be dragged down with the rest. It has its own currency, and it still has its own sovereignty [just] - if we can only get out.
I don’t give a damn about Germany, Italy, Mexico, Brazil, Siingapore or Hong-Kong.

If you read the link below it explains the global economic position in terms of bond yields.
A government bond yield curve typically has an upward slope — when the yields are plotted on a graph — because investors expect greater compensation for the risk of owning longer-maturity debt. An inversion, when shorter-dated yields are higher than longer-dated ones, is considered a warning of a looming recession.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKCN1V41FI
Jon.

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Happy in Cyprus
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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:41 am

kingfisher wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:11 am
No Jim, the UK need not be dragged down with the rest. It has its own currency, and it still has its own sovereignty [just] - if we can only get out.

Utter rollocks. The kind of deluded thinking which could only come from a Brexiteer who believes that the UK is somehow above getting caught up in cyclical downturns.

The UK has never been exempt from previous recessions, even - and long - before it joined the EU.

Ever heard the expression "When America sneezes, the world catches a cold"? It always used to be the case that recessions would start in America, then ripple eastwards across the pond to the UK, Europe and beyond.

But I can remember in the early 90's, the recession in the UK was infinitely worse than in the USA because of the UK's overly high interest rates at the time. Base rate was around 14%. I clearly remember the severity of that downturn, as in it we lost our business, our beautiful home and everything else we had spent the previous 30 years working for. We escaped bankruptcy by the skin of our teeth. :evil:

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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Les Bean » Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:19 am

kingfisher wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:11 am
No Jim, the UK need not be dragged down with the rest. It has its own currency, and it still has its own sovereignty [just] - if we can only get out.
I don’t give a damn about Germany, Italy, Mexico, Brazil, Siingapore or Hong-Kong.

If you read the link below it explains the global economic position in terms of bond yields.
A government bond yield curve typically has an upward slope — when the yields are plotted on a graph — because investors expect greater compensation for the risk of owning longer-maturity debt. An inversion, when shorter-dated yields are higher than longer-dated ones, is considered a warning of a looming recession.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKCN1V41FI
Jon.
Far as I'm aware, Mexico, Brazil, Singapore, China and the USA have their own currency and sovereignty so according to your logic none of these should be affected

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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Termites Dream » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:50 am

Recession is indeed looming I think. I grant you Trump is probably the straw on the Camels back but Central Banks have printed to much money at to lower interest rates for to long. The debt that has been created and asset bubbles that have been built up, will make this cycle much worse in my view, as the BIS has warned several times.
Gold has been moving up for about a year now and is at all time highs in many major currencies and many more globally, although not in the US dollar. As many countries offer negative rates on their Sovereign debt I cannot see Gold doing anything but rise unless the US or China back down.
Although we focus on Brexit and US trade -v- China, there are a surprising number of Geo-political-economic events around the world which make things worse, Iran-USA,India-Pakistan,US-Russia,US-China (China sea islands).HK, Korea-Japan....these won't help and there are many more. Interesting times to follow.

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Happy in Cyprus
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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:50 pm

Agree with most of what you said TD. Having said that, there are always geo-political-economic events going on. Have been since time immemorial. Different year, different s**t.

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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Jim B » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:38 pm

Interesting
The Treasury has moved billions of sterling into the failing Euro prior to Brexit, I wonder why?

Jim

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trea ... -kjmjzbx7r

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Happy in Cyprus
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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:29 pm

Mmmmm, can't think why. Perhaps kingfisher, jimgym or the Aquila could shed some light on this perplexing mystery :?

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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by kingfisher » Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:25 am

The B.of E., like all other central banks, holds a percentage of other major world currencies….

In recent years it has become customary for all central banks to invest and speculate in these currencies….

However, in a display of prudence not reciprocated by our European friends, the B.of E. has, over the past year, bought up euros to supply banks with. It is part of planning for leaving the European Project successfully later this year….

From a Reuters report, March this year:
“LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England said it will offer more euros to banks in Britain to avoid any cash crunch after Brexit and warned that other European Union countries are not fully ready for the possible no-deal hit to the financial system.
The BoE said most financial stability risks in Britain from a no-deal Brexit had been mitigated, and UK banks had enough liquidity to go for months without needing to tap markets.
But as a precaution it will launch a new weekly auction of euros from next week to ensure that banks based in Britain can borrow in Europe’s single currency, following on from a similar announcement last week about weekly sterling operations.
The European Central Bank confirmed that the Eurosystem of central banks would stand ready to lend pound sterling to euro area banks, if needed.
EU banks hold 15 percent of UK bank debt and 10 percent of UK government bonds.”
Jon.

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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Jim B » Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:54 am

It appears the Bank of England has a lot more confidence in the Euro than you do Jon

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Re: CNN reports of a Glog=bal Recession looming

Post by Termites Dream » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:05 am

This is pretty gloomy reading going forward. No mention of UK banks, but an IMF statement a couple of years back did mention Barclays as a potential issue. The quote from the article below rather some's up the problem. Reuters.

It’s simply the consequence of a decade of extra regulation, unconventional monetary policy and deleveraging... There are not that many ways for banks to get out of this.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-euroz ... KKCN1V517U

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