Paphos Life

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:40 pm

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:00 pm The statistics clearly show a strong correlation between certain voting patterns. Why?

But they don't show causation...

...

But the correlation is there. And it cannot be denied.
Yes - the interesting thing to debate is why?!
Why did those with a lower level of education
1. Vote for Trump. and
2. Vote for Brexit.

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:45 pm

Dominic wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:09 pm
Because the better educated don't do the jobs that are affected by cheap labour. If there was a flood of accountants into Britain lowering the wages of the locals, I am sure their opinion would change somewhat.

There are various assumptions in your statement.

Well you started it!

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:49 pm

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:40 pm

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:00 pm The statistics clearly show a strong correlation between certain voting patterns. Why?

But they don't show causation...

...

But the correlation is there. And it cannot be denied.
Yes - the interesting thing to debate is why?!
Why did those with a lower level of education
1. Vote for Trump. and
2. Vote for Brexit.

Given that you've accused everybody who voted for Brexit of being a thick racist I think you should justify it...

I've got 7 'O' levels to my name and voted for Brexit - so therefore in your eyes I am a racist. Quite an outrageous claim don't you think...?

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:45 pm You are assuming that the better educated are employed. And those more poorly educated are out of work. Can that be shown statistically?

No I am not. Again, I haven't mentioned people being out of work.

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:45 pm Many people with PhDs struggle to get well-paid jobs; and in fact end up with low-paid ones. Or nothing at all.

Perhaps they should have chosen a different PhD? But I doubt they don't get a job because of low paid immigrants. They don't get a job because they have a PhD in a subject that there are no jobs for.

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:45 pm Some well-educated people do low-paid jobs, completely contradicting your first sentence.

Some well-educated people voted Brexit, completely contradicting your whole argument.

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:40 pm

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:00 pm The statistics clearly show a strong correlation between certain voting patterns. Why?

But they don't show causation...

So your assertion that thick, uneducated people voted Brexit because they are thick and uneducated has no proof or value - it is just a trolling insult to those that don't meet some unspecified higher standard that you would find acceptable.

When you have proof of causation get back to us...

Why your obsession with causation?

The link that has been provided on this thread, and the quotes from it, make it clear that there is correlation between having a degree or equivalent qualification and voting Remain, and conversely there is correlation between having qualifications below degree ( or equivalent ) level and voting Leave.

Correlation does not imply causation. You appear to realise this.

Neither the BBC link, nor any comments on this thread, imply that people voted leave solely because they had a degree or equivalent.

All that is being said is that, if you have a degree or equivalent, you are more LIKELY to have voted Remain, than to have voted Leave.

I don't know why you are making a big deal out of this. And I don't know why you have referred to "thick, uneducated people" ... given that such a description is not contained within the BBC link or mentioned by anyone on this thread.

For clarity, what is being said is that there is a correlation between people whose highest qualification is below degree level and voting Leave. No one, other than your self, has referred to "thick, uneducated people".

Having established that people with degrees or equivalent are more likely to vote Remain, we might ask why that may be. Perhaps people with degrees are more likely to earn more money on average, perhaps they can afford to live where they want to live in the UK, perhaps they have happier lives, perhaps the unemployment rate is lower for this population ... perhaps many things come together to 'explain' why those with degrees or equivalent are more likely to vote Remain.

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:49 pm

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:40 pm

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:00 pm The statistics clearly show a strong correlation between certain voting patterns. Why?

But they don't show causation...

...

But the correlation is there. And it cannot be denied.
Yes - the interesting thing to debate is why?!
Why did those with a lower level of education
1. Vote for Trump. and
2. Vote for Brexit.

The same questions can be asked of those with a higher level of education. It can also be asked of ethnic minorities.

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:54 pm

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:49 pm

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:40 pm

But they don't show causation...

...

But the correlation is there. And it cannot be denied.
Yes - the interesting thing to debate is why?!
Why did those with a lower level of education
1. Vote for Trump. and
2. Vote for Brexit.

Given that you've accused everybody who voted for Brexit of being a thick racist I think you should justify it...

I've got 7 'O' levels to my name and voted for Brexit - so therefore in your eyes I am a racist. Quite an outrageous claim don't you think...?

No, she has not accused EVERYONE who voted Brexit of being either thick, a racist or a thick racist.

We've seen the correlation that if your highest qualification is below degree level, you were more LIKELY to vote Leave.

We have seen no correlation linking racism with highest educational achievement.

I do not know what proportion of racists have degrees. Neither do I know what proportion of people without degrees are racists. I guess we will never know.

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:11 pm Why your obsession with causation?

The link that has been provided on this thread, and the quotes from it, make it clear that there is correlation between having a degree or equivalent qualification and voting Remain, and conversely there is correlation between having qualifications below degree ( or equivalent ) level and voting Leave.

Correlation does not imply causation. You appear to realise this.

Precisely...

Because there will be multiple correlations depending on how you cut or analyse the data...

Correlation does not prove causation...

Unless the OP (or the BBC or whoever) can prove that there is a causative link between low education and voting Brexit then the whole thing is meaningless...

All people that drink fluids die - therefore drinking fluids causes death. That correlation between drinking fluids and dying has just as much value as that between education and voting Brexit...

Unless you or HiC can prove different of course...

Dominic wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:57 pm

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:45 pm You are assuming that the better educated are employed. And those more poorly educated are out of work. Can that be shown statistically?

No I am not. Again, I haven't mentioned people being out of work......

Some well-educated people voted Brexit, completely contradicting your whole argument.

mmm...

Your sentence -
Because the better educated don't do the jobs that are affected by cheap labour. ...

Jobs. Labour. Your sentence is about "employment". People doing jobs - or not wanting to do certain jobs.
In which case they may be out of work?
If somebody highly educated doesn't want to do a certain low paid job (your "cheap labour"- I don't want to misquote you) - there is at least a tiny suggestion that they might be without work, looking for some "job". ??
(I avoid the use of the term unemployed).

As for my "argument "- ? I said there is a correlation... but somebody else wrote the article. ..
So it is not even my "argument" - although I agree with the correlation. I think statistically it is obvious.
It is based on overall statistics, not on some
Some well-educated people voted Brexit,
I avoid paraphrasing you, even though the English is not good.

Jimgym wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:44 pm

Jimgward wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:15 pm I personally find the graphs that show age patterns to be more significant. That shows that the over 60's voted for Brexit, the under 60's to remain.

Turkeys voting for Xmas? or Wise old heads who know better? or, as I personally think, Age garners doubts, negative views and more conservative notions.... self-preservation over broader views?

What would you say of the under 60's who voted leave? Or the ethnic minorities who voted to leave?

I would say that the under 60's who voted leave would have probably covered most demographics, but as shown, more from less-educated ones. They would likely be in lower-paid jobs, more affected by immigration, as has been said by someone else and also probably less travelled and reliant on foreign trade directly.

Interestingly, I have heard many people of ethnic origin, being more pro-UK than many of British origins. I have also heard the most racist comments coming from ethnic minorities, including Indian's who were completely racist towards not just other Asians, but most peoples. I think ethnic minorities voted leave as it was protectionism. Not being identified within a growing, less-liked, group.

Being of an ethnic minority background myself, I voted reamain as I could see the improvements in the UK as a result of the EU, when it came to protecting individuals rights, as well as lessening sectarian and racist endemic values.

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:27 pm

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:11 pm Why your obsession with causation?

The link that has been provided on this thread, and the quotes from it, make it clear that there is correlation between having a degree or equivalent qualification and voting Remain, and conversely there is correlation between having qualifications below degree ( or equivalent ) level and voting Leave.

Correlation does not imply causation. You appear to realise this.

Precisely...

Because there will be multiple correlations depending on how you cut or analyse the data...

Correlation does not prove causation...

Unless the OP (or the BBC or whoever) can prove that there is a causative link between low education and voting Brexit then the whole thing is meaningless...

All people that drink fluids die - therefore drinking fluids causes death. That correlation between drinking fluids and dying has just as much value as that between education and voting Brexit...

Unless you or HiC can prove different of course...

So, do you accept that data suggests, less-educated voted more to leave and more-educated voted more to stay? That is irrefutable from statistics. It doesn't explain why they voted that way, but it is something worth noting.

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:27 pm

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:11 pm Why your obsession with causation?

The link that has been provided on this thread, and the quotes from it, make it clear that there is correlation between having a degree or equivalent qualification and voting Remain, and conversely there is correlation between having qualifications below degree ( or equivalent ) level and voting Leave.

Correlation does not imply causation. You appear to realise this.

Precisely...

Because there will be multiple correlations depending on how you cut or analyse the data...

Correlation does not prove causation...

Unless the OP (or the BBC or whoever) can prove that there is a causative link between low education and voting Brexit then the whole thing is meaningless...

All people that drink fluids die - therefore drinking fluids causes death. That correlation between drinking fluids and dying has just as much value as that between education and voting Brexit...

Unless you or HiC can prove different of course...

I disagree that correlation is meaningless. It can help understanding as long as you dont expect too much from the analysis.

I have pulled out of the air what very broadly (on average) might describe those with degrees, eg higher than average income, greater ability to choose where to live, on average happier etc). All these things combined might lead to an increased likelihood of a vote which does not change the status quo (ie vote to Remain.

But if your highest educational level is below degree level and if the opposite applies - ie if you are on below average income, if you feel trapped in an area that you would like to move out of, if you are not happy, etc - then there might be a higher probability that you will vote for change, ie Leave.

There you go, I've just done the BBC's job for them

Jimgward wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:42 pm

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:27 pm

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:11 pm Why your obsession with causation?

The link that has been provided on this thread, and the quotes from it, make it clear that there is correlation between having a degree or equivalent qualification and voting Remain, and conversely there is correlation between having qualifications below degree ( or equivalent ) level and voting Leave.

Correlation does not imply causation. You appear to realise this.

Precisely...

Because there will be multiple correlations depending on how you cut or analyse the data...

Correlation does not prove causation...

Unless the OP (or the BBC or whoever) can prove that there is a causative link between low education and voting Brexit then the whole thing is meaningless...

All people that drink fluids die - therefore drinking fluids causes death. That correlation between drinking fluids and dying has just as much value as that between education and voting Brexit...

Unless you or HiC can prove different of course...

So, do you accept that data suggests, less-educated voted more to leave and more-educated voted more to stay? That is irrefutable from statistics. It doesn't explain why they voted that way, but it is something worth noting.

Nobody can deny the correlation.... and I haven't tried to do so...

But the causation (uneducated people voted Brexit because they were uneducated, and racist of course) is entirely unproven...

When I left school in 1976 about 10% of school leavers went to university - today the target is 50%

So cut the data another way and you see that younger voters are likely to be 'better educated' than older voters like myself...

I don't think that makes me a racist, little Englander, xenophobe or any of the other insults that the remainers like to throw at those that chose for their own reasons to vote Brexit....

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:51 pm

Jimgward wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:42 pm

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:27 pm

Precisely...

Because there will be multiple correlations depending on how you cut or analyse the data...

Correlation does not prove causation...

Unless the OP (or the BBC or whoever) can prove that there is a causative link between low education and voting Brexit then the whole thing is meaningless...

All people that drink fluids die - therefore drinking fluids causes death. That correlation between drinking fluids and dying has just as much value as that between education and voting Brexit...

Unless you or HiC can prove different of course...

So, do you accept that data suggests, less-educated voted more to leave and more-educated voted more to stay? That is irrefutable from statistics. It doesn't explain why they voted that way, but it is something worth noting.

Nobody can deny the correlation.... and I haven't tried to do so...

But the causation (uneducated people voted Brexit because they were uneducated, and racist of course) is entirely unproven...

When I left school in 1976 about 10% of school leavers went to university - today the target is 50%

So cut the data another way and you see that younger voters are likely to be 'better educated' than older voters like myself...

I don't think that makes me a racist, little Englander, xenophobe or any of the other insults that the remainers like to throw at those that chose for their own reasons to vote Brexit....

You say the causation is "unproven" ... BUT NO ONE IS TRYING TO PROVE CAUSATION.

The correlation is there, but it says no more than this: people without degrees are more LIKELY to vote Leave.

If you accept the correlation we can try and dig deeper into the characteristics of the non-graduate population. No more than that.

No one has ever said that ALL people who voted Brexit are racist etc. But out of 17 million people there are bound to be be at least one or two.

And yes, I do agree that there will be proportionately fewer graduates in the over 60 population, for the reasons that you state. But this just increases the likelihood that over 60s will vote Leave.

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:27 pm

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:11 pm Why your obsession with causation?

The link that has been provided on this thread, and the quotes from it, make it clear that there is correlation between having a degree or equivalent qualification and voting Remain, and conversely there is correlation between having qualifications below degree ( or equivalent ) level and voting Leave.

Correlation does not imply causation. You appear to realise this.

Precisely...

Because there will be multiple correlations depending on how you cut or analyse the data...

Correlation does not prove causation...

Unless the OP (or the BBC or whoever) can prove that there is a causative link between low education and voting Brexit then the whole thing is meaningless...

All people that drink fluids die - therefore drinking fluids causes death. That correlation between drinking fluids and dying has just as much value as that between education and voting Brexit...

Unless you or HiC can prove different of course...

Excellent post.

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:30 pm
Your sentence -
Because the better educated don't do the jobs that are affected by cheap labour. ...

Jobs. Labour. Your sentence is about "employment". People doing jobs - or not wanting to do certain jobs.
In which case they may be out of work?

No, my sentence was about people doing jobs that are affected by cheap labour.

It is about people doing jobs.

It is not about people not wanting to do jobs.

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:30 pm
If somebody highly educated doesn't want to do a certain low paid job (your "cheap labour"- I don't want to misquote you) - there is at least a tiny suggestion that they might be without work, looking for some "job". ??
(I avoid the use of the term unemployed).

And your point is?

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:30 pm As for my "argument "- ? I said there is a correlation... but somebody else wrote the article. ..
So it is not even my "argument" - although I agree with the correlation. I think statistically it is obvious.
It is based on overall statistics, not on some
Some well-educated people voted Brexit,
I avoid paraphrasing you, even though the English is not good.

Sorry, my degree was in biochemistry. I only got an O level in English.

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm You say the causation is "unproven" ... BUT NO ONE IS TRYING TO PROVE CAUSATION.

OhSusana is claiming that under-educated people (by her standards) like me voted Brexit because they were uneducated (and therefore racist)...

She is claiming causation when none is proven...

All babies fed milk (breast or formula) die. Therefore drinking milk was the cause of their death.

That has as much validity as 'uneducated people voted Brexit because' they were uneducated...

So yea, the correlation, causation thing is quite important....

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm If you accept the correlation we can try and dig deeper into the characteristics of the non-graduate population. No more than that.

I have never denied the correlation - I accepted it a couple of posts back... But as I have repeatedly pointed out, it has no meaning unless you can prove causation.

I bet there are many other correlations - tea drinkers voted Brexit more than coffee drinkers, left handed people, gingers, people that like Marmite, brown toast vs white toast, butter, margarine...

None of them have any meaning unless you can prove causation... I wonder why the BBC and OhSusana choose to focus on the lower educational standards...?

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm No one has ever said that ALL people who voted Brexit are racist etc. But out of 17 million people there are bound to be be at least one or two.

And I'm sure there were some racists that voted 'remain' too - and thieves, rapists, misogynists, etc.

Your point is...?

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm And yes, I do agree that there will be proportionately fewer graduates in the over 60 population, for the reasons that you state. But this just increases the likelihood that over 60s will vote Leave.

And again, your point is what...?

Over 60s shouldn't be allowed to vote...?

I don't think there is a point.

cyprusgrump wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:17 pm

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm You say the causation is "unproven" ... BUT NO ONE IS TRYING TO PROVE CAUSATION.

OhSusana is claiming that under-educated people (by her standards) like me voted Brexit because they were uneducated (and therefore racist)...

She is claiming causation when none is proven...

All babies fed milk (breast or formula) die. Therefore drinking milk was the cause of their death.

That has as much validity as 'uneducated people voted Brexit because' they were uneducated...

So yea, the correlation, causation thing is quite important....

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm If you accept the correlation we can try and dig deeper into the characteristics of the non-graduate population. No more than that.

I have never denied the correlation - I accepted it a couple of posts back... But as I have repeatedly pointed out, it has no meaning unless you can prove causation.

I bet there are many other correlations - tea drinkers voted Brexit more than coffee drinkers, left handed people, gingers, people that like Marmite, brown toast vs white toast, butter, margarine...

None of them have any meaning unless you can prove causation... I wonder why the BBC and OhSusana choose to focus on the lower educational standards...?

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm No one has ever said that ALL people who voted Brexit are racist etc. But out of 17 million people there are bound to be be at least one or two.

And I'm sure there were some racists that voted 'remain' too - and thieves, rapists, misogynists, etc.

Your point is...?

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:04 pm And yes, I do agree that there will be proportionately fewer graduates in the over 60 population, for the reasons that you state. But this just increases the likelihood that over 60s will vote Leave.

And again, your point is what...?

Over 60s shouldn't be allowed to vote...?

This is getting rather tedious.

OhSusanna has NOT claimed that people with less than a degree voted Leave because they have less than a degree. She has asked why and I have suggested we need to dig deeper and look at possible factors common to this population.

She is not claiming causation, she is pointing out the correlation between education and voting pattern.

She has pointed out the correlation in a survey between those who have degrees or equivalent, and those who don't. That is a high standard, we are not talking 'A' level as the benchmark or even GCSE or equivalent.

We are not talking about uneducated people, we are talking educated to below degree level or degree level and above.

With respect, I do not think you can deduce what OhSusana's highest educational achievement is. I have read nothing in her posts that would convince me either way.

When I stated that out of 17m people there was bound to be 1 or 2 racists, I was merely stating the obvious just in case you didn't get it. And yes, there were probably a racist or 2 who voted Remain.

I made the point that not ALL people who voted Brexit are racist, to counter your ludicrous suggestion that somehow, because of the way that you voted, that you must be a racist.

The more you are going to bring up stupid possible correlations, I am afraid the more you are going to look stupid.

There is a correlation. It is there to be discussed. I have suggested areas in which to dig deeper which may help us understand better voting pattern. My thoughts on this seem to have passed over your head.

My point in referring to the age correlation was because this was covered in the BBC link. People aged over 60 are more LIKELY to vote Leave; people over 60 are also more likely NOT to have degrees, so this firther strengthens the correlation for this age group.

A bit crass of you ask if over 60s should be allowed to vote, don't you think?

As I say, this has now got very tedious.

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:18 pm OhSusanna has NOT claimed that people with less than a degree voted Leave because they have less than a degree. She has asked why and I have suggested we need to dig deeper and look at possible factors common to this population.

She is not claiming causation, she is pointing out the correlation between education and voting pattern.

Really...?

OhSusana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:34 pm One sentence in the report says it all for me -

The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census

My own opinion. Those less well educated in America - and maybe the UK - are more likely to be racist.
And Trump is seriously racist. The White Supremacists in America love him. And actively support the right-wing press - notably Trump's favorite Breitbart news thing.....

One sentence says it all apparently...

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:18 pm The more you are going to bring up stupid possible correlations, I am afraid the more you are going to look stupid.

I'll quote Lynsab on this one...

Lynsab wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:29 pm I've always believed those who resort to personal insults have lost the arguement...

Obviously, she can't spell argument but still...

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:18 pm There is a correlation. It is there to be discussed.

Then discuss it and prove the validity of the claim... prove causation in fact....

Otherwise, your correlation is completely meaningless...

keving wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:18 pm As I say, this has now got very tedious.

Then don't reply or post somewhere where other posters don't question the things you claim...