No Deal

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Sheer Khan
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Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:32 pm

No Deal

Post by Sheer Khan » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:08 am

As the prospect of a Brexit no deal becomes more likely, pensioners who live in Europe and transfer their sterling pensions into Euros can only watch as for every £1,000 they transfer they will now receive €50 less than they did 7 days ago

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Lincoln
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Re: No Deal

Post by Lincoln » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:20 am

The exchange rate alters daily and some times several times a day. We just keep an eye on it and have money ready to transfer when the rate suites :evil: us.
All things are possible

Sheer Khan
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Re: No Deal

Post by Sheer Khan » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:45 am

Currency rates change by the second following world events, statements by politicians , world leaders and extra large currency deals which might be required for business deals or just speculation, last days it’s only. been going one way

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mike strand2
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Re: No Deal

Post by mike strand2 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:08 am

Sheer Khan wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:45 am
Currency rates change by the second following world events, statements by politicians , world leaders and extra large currency deals which might be required for business deals or just speculation, last days it’s only. been going one way
Indeed it is one way and not the right way! Only 7 days ago, money experts were predicting the pound to rise to around 1.33 against the euro by the end of this month!

We have all been in this situation before and no doubt will be in it again in the future. This is something we have learnt to live with as it's out of our control. When it's out of our control, there's really no point worrying about it. No doubt if there's a disastrous Brexit then everyone who uses the pound sterling will be suffering, not just those of us who live here in the sunshine (& blistering heat!).

One thing that people who live on a government pension can do though, is where possible, have it paid into a Sterling account. In that way, people are free to choose what exchange rate they want to use when using Currencyfair or Transferwise to send money here.

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Happy in Cyprus
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Re: No Deal

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:05 am

mike strand2 wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:08 am
No doubt if there's a disastrous Brexit...

The evidence is clear that Brexit is already as disastrous, on every front, as many of us have been forecasting for 4 years. Only now there's no-one left to shout us down for being negative and scare-mongering. Realism has at last hit home.

Bet your bottom dollar, as soon as the pack of cards comes crashing down, Bozo will be off to pastures new with Carrie and little Wilfred. He's already stated he can't live on the PM's salary of €150k a year and is demonstrably not up to the job. Boris was previously earning €300k a year penning articles for the Telegraph and speaking engagements, so it's fair to assume that he'll disappear off into his golden sunset as soon as the s++t hits the fan in the event of no trade agreement with the EU. Leaving everyone else to sort out the car crash.

Lincoln wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:20 am
We just keep an eye on it and have money ready to transfer when the rate suites :evil: us.
Let me know when you see an upward tick. Trend has been relentlessly downwards the past few months :lol:

Two Tweets today, from hundreds in the same vein:
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Jimgward
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Re: No Deal

Post by Jimgward » Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:47 pm

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Jimgward
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Re: No Deal

Post by Jimgward » Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:48 pm

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Jimgward
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Re: No Deal

Post by Jimgward » Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:50 pm

So, with the second wave of Covid in the UK and talk of 7,000 lorries stuck in Kent, people are already starting to bulk buy in the UK, on the basis that rationing will come in during January and queues in supermarkets

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Happy in Cyprus
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Re: No Deal

Post by Happy in Cyprus » Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:58 am

It is common knowledge that 19 lorry parks are being built. I saw one on TV the other day, it looked colossal. Given that heavily-laden arctics require several feet deep of concrete beneath their wheels, to say nothing of infrastructure and staff at each park, one cannot begin to imagine the cost of this venture. And wasn't there also a requirement for 10-15,000 additional Customs officers?

A slight ray of hope. Reports on Twitter suggest that Boris is now more inclined to try for an FTA deal, after he learned of this report from the LSE:

No-deal Brexit will cost UK more than Covid, report finds
LSE analysis says long term economic hit will be two to three times as large as Covid impact
Lisa O'Carroll Brexit correspondent. Wed 23 Sep 2020 13.03 BST

The economic cost of a no-deal Brexit could be two or three times as bad as the impact of Covid, a report has concluded.

Analysis by the London School of Economics and UK in a Changing Europe says “a no-deal Brexit would represent a further major shock to a UK economy” with a “major set of changes” to the economic relationship with the country’s largest trading partner.

“Our modelling with LSE of the impact of a no-deal Brexit suggests that the total cost to the UK economy over the longer term will be two to three times as large as that implied by the Bank of England’s forecast for the impact of Covid-19,” says the report.

LSE modelling puts the long-term economic hit from a no-deal Brexit at 8% of GDP, similar to that of the government’s own forecast in 2018 of 7.6%, which amounts to £160bn in today’s money, or £2,400 per person.

This compares with the Bank of England’s latest forecast of the impact of Covid which shows a reduction of 1.7% of GDP to the economy up to 2022.

This amounts to £40bn, or £600 per person, and is dwarfed by cost of a no-deal Brexit, which will have an impact on GDP for years to come.

“In the long run, Brexit is likely to be more significant” depressing the country’s economic output over 20 years, says the report, titled 'What would no deal mean?


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UK in a Changing Europe and LSE modelling of Brexit and Covid impact Photograph: UK in a Changing Europe and LSE modelling of Brexit and Covid impact In the short term it is “almost certainly correct” that “the economic impacts of Covid-19 dwarf those of Brexit,” it says, as not even the most pessimistic forecasts suggest the initial fall in output caused by a no-deal could lead to a downturn like that seen in the second quarter of this year.

But it concludes that there will be longer term damage to the country’s reputation for ease of doing businesses, with delays due to administrative burdens at ports, constraints on travel and tourism, as well as curbs on immigration and free movement of labour.

This is on top of the impact of the imposition of tariffs such as 10% on cars and 50% on cheddar cheese imports, which would be imposed for at least one year until the UK came up with its own tariff arrangements with trading partners including the EU.

Economists have talked of V-shaped, W-shaped and K-shaped recoveries from Covid, but a no-deal Brexit will make it “harder for the UK to ‘grow its way out of trouble’,” the report says.

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