Bye-bye weather forecasts and now they're back again!

[Devil]

It is with regret that I can no longer maintain my graphic weather forecasts correctly; I'm afraid that old age has crept up on me. The website http://weather.bnellis.eu/ continues, to provide static information. My physical weather station continues to operate (in fact, I've just upgraded it!).

Anyone wanting a spot 5-day weather forecast in plain language or other data has only to ask by e-mail or by PM. It is possible I may add a simplified web forecast, if the demand is there; please ask if this may interest you.

Sorry, folks.

Brian

[PhotoLady]

So, no more public duties Devil....

All along you have been making us believe your name is Brian when really you were Prince Philip in disguise

Sorry to hear you're giving up the weather posts although I have to admit they often confused me.... I'm happy with your plain and simple approach should you carry on

[memory man]

He's not Brian..................

This is Brian.................

I'm Brian

[JimX]

Devil, I take it this would be the forecast for Pafos? I always have used for local weather WU that I have always found reasonably reliable and for me easy to use. Thanks for your efforts.

Not interested in the climate in the UK personally...

https://www.wunderground.com/cy/paphos

[Dominic]

And let's not forget the weather matrix available on this very website. It collates all the data from stations around Cyprus and lets you compare at a glance, so you know where to avoid.

https://www.paphoslife.com/weather/matrix

Oh and the source is Weatherunderground. I don't rely on my own seaweed.

[smudger]

Devil, hope this doesn't mean you are having more health probs, but whatever the reason I truly wish you well. Just keep on keeping on!

Regards
Jacs

[Devil]

Oh and the source is Weatherunderground. I don't rely on my own seaweed.

Weatherunderground and all the national forecasts - and my own - use exactly the same data derived from numerous US and European sources. Only the local interpretation varies. The UK Met Office, for example, interprets the international data with, I think, 48 different possible scenarii of the 24 h outcome. An experienced meteorologist then looks at them and from his experience chooses that which in his experience seems to be most likely; from that human choice, the forecasts of the UK TV programmes are derived. Not all meteo stations have the computing power to calculate such a choice.

In the case of my own forecasts on an ordinary PC, the software restricts the input data to the international sources over a radius of 1000-1500 km, rejecting all the rest of the world data. These data are on a grid of 15-80 km and 30 altitudes up to the tropopause and I update them 8 times/day. It also downloads data from as many ground stations as it can find, in the directions of the expected weather over the following 5 days. Finally, data from my own two professional weather stations take into account the variations likely from the local microclimate. Believe it or not, the number-crunching on an ordinary PC takes only about half-an-hour but for a fairly restricted region, typically the valleys in a radius of about 10-15 km. This very local forecast is usually about 90% accurate over 24 h, dropping progressively to 20-50% at 5 days. Incidentally, another software compares the measured results from my stations with my forecast results over the last 30-60 days, once per day, allowing weighted correction factors to be introduced into the forecasts, in the case of anomalies. This software takes about 2 h to run.

The important point is that professional and amateur meteorologists generally can forecast what is going to happen. It is much more difficult to forecast exactly when it will happen. In the case of thunderstorms, no one can forecast exactly where they will happen (think of the ifs and buts and possibles on the BBC/Met Office forecasts!).

Very sophisticated seaweed.

[Dominic]

Hi Devil, just to clarify, I wasn't trying to imply that your methods were anything other than professional. I was talking about my own seaweed, so to speak.

[Devil]

I've received a slightly surprising no. of messages regretting the demise of the forecasts. As these are the most automated part of the weather website, I've repented and reintroduced them in English and Greek. These are now derived from a new weather station I've just installed and there may be a few glitches until everything is running smoothly. I'm keeping the old station operational as a backup, at least for the time being.
Home Page http://weather.bnellis.eu/index.html
Weather forecast in English http://weather.bnellis.eu/forecast/index.php
Weather forecast in Greek http://weather.bnellis.eu/Greek/
Weather Links http://weather.bnellis.eu/Links/default.html (a few links to international sources)
Weather Notes http://weather.bnellis.eu/notes/default.html (13 short essays explaining simply what you may want to know about weather and climate, not forgetting a myth or two!)

[PaphosAL]

Nice one Devil! HUGE round of applause for you, THANKS!

[Dominic]

Yes that is certainly a comprehensive list.