Cyprus weather forecasting.

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Chaddy
Posts: 780
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:39 am

Cyprus weather forecasting.

Post by Chaddy »

Why do the weather forecasting channels get it wrong so often in Cyprus.I have lived in US and the UK and when checking the weather channels there they usually get it right 95% of the time ( not to mention of course the famous Michael Fish forecast in 1987 ).
Over the weekend i checked three channels for the forecast and every one got it wrong. ( or one got it nearly right ).
A Cypriot friend of mine told me it was difficult to predict the weather in Cyprus because of its geographical position and terrain.
Was he right :?
trevnhil
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Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:12 pm
Location: Polemi

Re: Cyprus weather forecasting.

Post by trevnhil »

Weather will always change from the forecast and at least at this end of the island rain can be very localised.. However for a year or two now I have been using https://www.windy.com/34.886/32.508?34. ... ,m:eDjag3l
Our dog is frightened of thunder and lightning and this forecast can be set to show Thunder. It predicted it for 3 am this morning and it was spot on.. The dog was not happy, but we were pre warned..
Trev..
Kili01
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Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:41 am

Re: Cyprus weather forecasting.

Post by Kili01 »

I use weather underground. I find it about 90% accurate.

<weatherunderground.com> I use their forecast for Paphos Airport.

Airports need accurate weather forecasts.

Dee
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Devil
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Re: Cyprus weather forecasting.

Post by Devil »

I have been weather forecasting as an amateur for many years. In order to do this, I have three weather stations, each of them able to measure the current weather and interpret it in its own way. In addition, I make enormous use of the weather reported on the Internet over a radius of up to about 1500 km and at altitudes from sea level up to about 15,000 m (tropopause).

Considering that all this is done on a couple of ordinary PCs, my forecasts are mostly very accurate for the part of Cyprus where I live (plonk in the middle!). Although Cyprus is a small island, its topography is sufficiently rugged that the weather can be very different from one place to the next; two places, 10 or 15 km apart, may have very different weather from time to time. This makes weather forecasting quite difficult and I would go so far as to say that it is impossible to be accurate 100% of the time. In reality, I would guess that my own forecasts are better than 90 to 95% accurate for the region where I live and for, say, 20 km or more round it and perhaps even 50 km on a good day! As we are in the centre of the island, I guess that we do not do too badly at all!

Much of the rain that falls on the island is from thunderstorms, which can happen at any time of the year. It is totally impossible, even for professional systems like the Met office, to forecast where a thunderstorm will occur. This problem is exacerbated by the small diameter of many of the storms; I have seen them less than 1 km across. Nobody knows much about how thunderstorms locate themselves, even though the physics of their generation is given; it may be that the presence of a car with a hot engine may trigger one under some circumstances.

My English language forecast, normally updated every three hours, can be found at http://weather.bnellis.eu/forecast/ and it ain't looking very pretty at the moment! :-)
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JimX
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Re: Cyprus weather forecasting.

Post by JimX »

You must remember Cyprus is a small island, weather that is forecasted can just sail on by, although Weatherunderground got it about right for this week.
Jim.
Kili01
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Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:41 am

Re: Cyprus weather forecasting.

Post by Kili01 »

Yes, they did. Generally its far more reliable that the so-called Cyprus weather forecasts which seem to be forecasting the weather in the Nicosia area!


Dee
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