Goodbye...Lord Frost

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Dominic
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Dominic »

I would say that most of the remainers who voted in that poll were either bullshitting in that poll or bullshitting beforehand when they were going on about how bad Brexit was going to be.

I'm a remainer, and would love to see the UK back in the EU. But they are doing better outside than I thought they would. Now that doesn't mean Brexit was a good thing. But I thought that there would be a much bigger mess than there actually is. Look at Sterling, for a start. Currently at 1:19. Both HIC and other people wailed incessantly on here how it was going to be lower than the euro, and that clearly didn't happen. So how can people say it is going worse than they expected? Really? Did you really, honestly think it would go any better?
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Dominic »

You don't read other people's posts properly do you? And you have a very short memory about your own erroneous predictions regarding sterling. Quite why you felt the need to publish a graph is beyond me, especially when you gleefully predicted that it would go below 1 euro, which is the baseline of your graph.

Now, with regards to British companies having to move their head offices to the EU, are you honestly saying that when you envisaged Brexit, you didn't think stuff like that would happen??

I'm not saying Brexit is going well. It isn't. It just isn't going badly as most remainers thought it would, myself included. But that's only because I imagined it would be in a much bigger shit storm than it is.

And if stuff happened in the next few weeks that was cataclysmically bad for the UK as far as Brexit was concerned, then I would adjust my answer.

And I find your absolute belief in polls rather amusing.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by The Aquila »

I looking for something totally unrelated to this but remembering Dominic’s last post about erroneous predictions I thought this would be mildly amusing…


Post by Happy in Cyprus » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:25 am

As has been pointed out many times, Brexit has not started yet; it's still early days. Inflation for the UK is set to rise to 4% as a consequence of the pound's recent decline. Considered opinion is that the pound will decline further after Article 50 is declared, the 'negotiations' start and the new reality - a bit like Trump's presidency - sets in ;) After that, who knows?
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Post by Happy in Cyprus » Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:48 am

Turning now the the strength of Sterling. The thread in which the GBP/Euro exchange rate was vigorously debated appears to have disappeared.

My memory's not so good these days, but I seem to remember that in the thread I claimed that Sterling had stubbornly refused to break out of it's trading range over the past nine months. Certain parties - it might have been CyprusGrump and Dominic - took me to task over that claim. They pointed out that in the past 3 weeks Sterling had just pipped over the trend line...and CyprusGrump gleefully posted graphs to illustrate his point. I reminded that their jubilance might be short-lived...and I believe my closing words to Dominic were: "We'll see".

Checked Sterling's progress today, only to find that once again Sterling has succumbed to the strength of the Euro and also the USD. So, back on trend
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Post by Happy in Cyprus » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:20 pm

In the first few months after the referendum vote I pointed out what would likely happen to the car industry and other major industries of the UK leaving the single market. As usual at the time, I was accused of talking rollocks and scare-mongering.
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Post by Happy in Cyprus » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:50 pm

I can just about remember someone who on CL used to make prediction after prediction - Invariably, over time, all the predictions turned out to be fanciful thinking and just plain wrong. Not one prediction ever came true.
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Oh the irony :lol:
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jim B »

Dominic wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:42 pm You don't read other people's posts properly do you? And you have a very short memory about your own erroneous predictions regarding sterling. Quite why you felt the need to publish a graph is beyond me, especially when you gleefully predicted that it would go below 1 euro, which is the baseline of your graph.

Now, with regards to British companies having to move their head offices to the EU, are you honestly saying that when you envisaged Brexit, you didn't think stuff like that would happen??

I'm not saying Brexit is going well. It isn't. It just isn't going badly as most remainers thought it would, myself included. But that's only because I imagined it would be in a much bigger shit storm than it is.

And if stuff happened in the next few weeks that was cataclysmically bad for the UK as far as Brexit was concerned, then I would adjust my answer.

And I find your absolute belief in polls rather amusing.
I think the proof in the pudding will show itself beginning in the next week or so when import and export controls begin to kick in after the holiday. This will be the first part and the second part will be in July.
Import and export has been given a free ride up until now but it's going to be a whole new ballgame. Let's see what happens with proof of origin for instance. The Press are very good at burying bad news on Brexit as are the BBC and Sky but even the likes of the Telegraph and Mail are raising concerns with the way things are going.
I think you'll be adjusting your answer sooner than later.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Dominic »

And is Brexit going as badly as you thought it would or did you think it would be worse than it has been up to now, or better?
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jim B »

As Brexit is not complete yet it's very difficult to determine.
I agree with you regarding currency but isn't that more to do with Speculators gambling on higher interest rates rather than the state of the economy which is not as healthy as Bozo tries to make out?
Also it depends on where you get your information from as to whether you believe Brexit is going well or poorly. In the main the media is in the government's pocket and are reluctant to report anything that maybe detrimental to the cause.
It's the likes of leaving Erasmus and introducing the Turing scheme, (a bit like taking your Rolls Royce and giving you a Fiat 500 to replace it) that concerns me or trying to introduce a replacement CE scheme that is presently causing pandemonium.
As said we can't really scomment until it has been fully implemented.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jim B »

Not to Labour the point but a report in the Independent reported that the new software for Customs failed New Ywars day and Exporters/Importers cannot upload the required information on to the system.
Incredible, you would think they would have tried 8t before zero hour.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by The Aquila »

[/quote]
But Aquila, given that your enthusiasm for Brexit appears undiminished, and because you are about the only Brexiteer left on the Paphos Life ramparts, perhaps you would be good enough to tell me and Jim what benefits you perceive the UK has gained in it's first year of non-EU membership.
[/quote]

Just because I want the UK to prosper away from EU you seem to think that I am a brexiter (again)!! However, I did vote in the referendum though, did you ?
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Dominic »

Happy in Cyprus wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:59 am
Dominic wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:42 pmQuite why you felt the need to publish a graph is beyond me, especially when you gleefully predicted that it would go below 1 euro, which is the baseline of your graph.
Don't you think it's irrelevant whether the damage caused by Brexit is less than, equal to, or exceeds any one individual's expectations? What matters surely is the actual damage done to the UK. And that is undeniable. In my previous post I ran through some of the damages but failed to mention the labour shortages in transport, care homes, hospitals and farms now that EU workers are unable to travel freely. The cost of those staff shortages is felt in so many ways, not just financial.
No, it is the only thing that is relevant, given that we are talking about an opinion poll you published the results from, which was asking that exact question.

Had the question been "Do you think Brexit is going well?" then I would be giving you a completely different answer, but that's not what the opinion poll was asking. Which was precisely why I implied that the poll was bunk. People weren't answering the question asked.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

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Here’s one you might be interested in HiC.

The head of the City broker FinnCap has said Brexit has been a boost to the Square Mile as it has allowed regulators to ditch EU red tape.

Sam Smith, chief executive of the London-listed business, said more money is going into UK growth companies than ever before and the City is working “very well”, despite warnings that it would lose business and jobs to the Continent following Britain’s break with Brussels.

“To me, Brexit has not been anything other than quite positive ... we are seeing signs that actually the regulatory regime could be changed in a positive way post-Brexit to really make this ecosystem fly,” she said.

The comments came as new research from EY found that fears of a mass exodus of City workers failed to materialise as the flow of bankers and traders moving to the EU went into reverse this year.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs were said to be at risk if the UK voted to leave. However, the exodus has been far lower than expected with fewer than 10,000 workers thought to have relocated.

Separately, the City watchdog implemented a set of sweeping reforms of London’s listing rules in December as regulators seek to make the City more attractive to fast-growing firms.

As part of the overhaul, the Financial Conduct Authority slashed free float requirements for listed companies in a bid to lure a new generation of start-ups to the London Stock Exchange.

It also permitted firms with dual-class share structures to claim places in the leading share indices and draw on a wider pool of investors including tracker funds.

Ms Smith said: “We have had a great funding environment, there is lots of investment coming into the UK, there is money to back startups and scale up businesses. And that’s continued to come from overseas, which has gotten much better since Brexit.”

Meanwhile, in a sign that further reforms are to come, Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, recently criticised EU-era red tape in the insurance market, arguing that rules requiring insurers to hold vast sums of money in ultra-low risk assets have put policyholders at risk.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... r-finncap/
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jim B »

Well he's not going to talk it down is he?
The article is for the Brexit Flagship, the Telegraph so I wouldn't expect anything else.
I've always said I'm not a financial wizard but it appears to me authorities are removing all the safeguards introduced after the investment banks crashed the world economies last time.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by fishbeardsunset »

Interesting- points of view expressed here- and I also belive that irrespective of whether you voted to leave or stay, the World has now thrown up much greater challenges and obstacles alongside the aftermath of "Brexit" and I quote from a headline in the Economic Times" that said :
"The rapid spread of the Covid variant has ignited fears that more Countries may impose economically disruptive restrictions, impacting markets".

The Financial times has an article today which said the U.K will lag behind other developed Countries in its economic recovery from the pandemic in 2022 with 100 economists predicting it will be held back by political uncertainty and the lingering after-effects of Brexit.

The biggest challenges they saw facing the country's economy were global in nature,- high energy prices, and broader pandemic- related inflationary measures, sustained labour shortages and disruption to supply chains with continuing waves of viral infections and the mounting risk of climate change

But, many argued that the U.K would find it harder to deal with these shocks than its peers, because fiscal support was tapering and Brexit was damaging trade and exacerbating supply bottlenecks.

With a string of scandals raising the spectre of a leadership challenge to Boris Johnson - Mr Panicos Demitriades a professor at Leicester University and a former governor at Cyprus Central Bank, predicted there would be questions over the prime ministers "arbitrary if not chaotic style of government" :lol: :lol:
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

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Reality Check...

To mark the first anniversary of the trade deal between the UK and the EU, Downing Street issued a press release about how prime minister Boris Johnson plans to "maximise the benefits of Brexit".

It gave examples of "key successes" so far:

"Proudly restoring the crown stamp on to the side of pint glasses"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/59868823
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jimgward »

But… but…. Blue passports….. and… and…. And…. An Australian trade deal……. And…. And….
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

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Jimgward wrote: Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:02 pm But… but…. Blue passports….. and… and…. And…. An Australian trade deal……. And…. And….
And people exercising their right to vote however they wished without the need to justify it to anyone. Isn't democracy wonderful!
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jim B »

Jimgym wrote: Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:48 pm
Jimgward wrote: Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:02 pm But… but…. Blue passports….. and… and…. And…. An Australian trade deal……. And…. And….
And people exercising their right to vote however they wished without the need to justify it to anyone. Isn't democracy wonderful!
Many thousands living abroad weren't allowed that democratic right to vote on a subject that fundamentally affected their lives and I'm not referring to the 15 year rule.
Democracy is wonderful if its fair and not loaded in favour of one party against another. There's one thing that doesn't t exist in the UK and that's democracy.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

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"Many thousands living abroad weren't allowed that democratic right to vote on a subject that fundamentally affected their lives and I'm not referring to the 15 year rule."

Yes, but the margin of victory was over a million, so that is irrelevant.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jim B »

Dominic wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:19 am "Many thousands living abroad weren't allowed that democratic right to vote on a subject that fundamentally affected their lives and I'm not referring to the 15 year rule."

Yes, but the margin of victory was over a million, so that is irrelevant.
My comment wasn't about Brexit per se, it was about the lack of democracy in the UK and people being disenfranchised of their vote.
Because of the voting system, FPTP, a large percentage of the population has no representation which to me and many like minded people is not democratic. The Tories have an 80 seat majority with only 46.3% of the vote which confirms the system used in the UK and Belorus is undemocratic.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Dominic »

The last time that was put to the vote the vast majority of people who could actually be arsed to vote voted to keep things as they are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Unit ... referendum

On a turnout of 42.2 percent, 68 percent voted 'No' and 32 percent voted 'Yes'. Ten of the 440 local voting areas recorded 'Yes' votes above 50 per cent: four were Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh Central and Glasgow Kelvin, with the remaining six being in London.

If this confirms anything, it is that you are a sore loser.
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Re: Goodbye...Lord Frost

Post by Jim B »

Of course I'm a sore loser, you don't win anything by being a good loser, ask Alex Ferguson or Jurgen Klopp.
The right wing media went into overdrive telling the gullible British public how bad it would be if the country went to PR not informing them how favourable to the Tories FPTP is.
I blame the Blair government for not grasping the nettle and voting it through when Labour were in power, there would never have been another majority Tory government.
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