French Election

[smudger]

So it's Macron or Marine??

Goodbye EU??

[smudger]

"Macron is pro-EU and I have read that he is not disposed to give the UK an easy ride in the Brexit negotiations."

Quelle surprise from the fountain of all knowledge. No change there then

[cyprusgrump]

Macron is pro-EU and I have read that he is not disposed to give the UK an easy ride in the Brexit negotiations. All or most of the other parties will be behind Macron in the second round. So Marine will lose, as was always anticipated.

Smudger can rest easy in the knowledge that it won't be Goodbye EU

As a matter of interest, what was your prediction of the outcome of the Brexit vote...?

[jeba]

Goodbye EU??

Seems that´s not what the stock markets are suggesting. The E-STOXX rose by more than 4%.

[Varky]

Goodbye EU??

Seems that´s not what the stock markets are suggesting. The E-STOXX rose by more than 4%.

The question marks at the end clarify the posting and were after "So it's Macron or Marine??" so your counter comment was not really appropriate as Smudger's posting was a question. If you are going to quote, at least quote in context.

[jeba]

What are you on about? My point simply was that the answer of the markets to the question is that probably Macron will finally win and the EU will not go down the drain - at least not because of that French election.

[cyprusgrump]

As a matter of interest, what was your prediction of the outcome of the Brexit vote...?

I'm not sure that I made a prediction on that particular outcome - and like most (including Boris and Farage) I certainly didn't expect it. But like the 48% who voted to remain I was shocked and saddened that the UK could have inflicted such an injurious wound on itself.

Of more recent relevence, perhaps you could remind me what your prediction was last week for Sterling's future outlook.

Your failing memory is certainly proving convenient today!

[cyprusgrump]

Your failing memory is certainly proving convenient today!

Ditto your goodself. You checked how the pound is faring today?

I did!

I see it has gained ground against the US dollar, the Indian Rupee, The Australian Dollar, The Canadian Dollar, The South African Rand, The New Zealand Dollar and The Japanese Yen while losing less than €0.006 against the €uro...

What was your point...?

[cyprusgrump]

I see it has gained ground against the US dollar, the Indian Rupee, The Australian Dollar, The Canadian Dollar, The South African Rand, The New Zealand Dollar and The Japanese Yen while losing less than €0.006 against the €uro...

Why not not include the North Korean Won and the Mauritian rupee?

If that's the very best you can come up with in support of your argument, you've completely lost the plot

You asked if I had checked how 'the Pound was fairing today?'

I had, and the pound had gained against all of the major currencies listed by XE but had a tiny fall against the €uro...

So, I ask again, what was your point exactly...?

[cyprusgrump]

By your words shall ye be known

[Royal]

Some, who rejoiced in the UK voting for Brexit made no secret of the fact that they hoped voters in the Netherlands, France and elsewhere would stick their fingers up at the EU in populist fashion. They didn't. Commonsense prevailed.

Macron won against Le Pen by a substantial majority of those who voted - there is no getting around that fact, and in my opinion he is a better choice than Le Pen. However, the French people rejected all the 'Establishment' figures one by one - Hollande (a deeply unpopular President) said that he would not stand for re-election; his Socialist replacement Harmon fell at the first hurdle; Sarkozy and Juppe tried to get the nomination as the Republican candidate and failed. Francois Filon who was the Republican candidate also fell at the first hurdle. There was a 65% turnout for an election which could, if Le Pen had been voted in, have signalled Frexit. This was the lowest turnout for 40 years - 12 million voters abstained and over 4 million spoiled their ballot papers. Instead, the French have elected a President who is the youngest head of state in Europe, currently has no seats in the French Parliament and has vowed to reform the EU.

A similar thing happened in the Netherlands elections earlier this year when Geert Wilders, although failing to win, increased his share of the vote and the number of seats in Parliament from 12 to 20 whilst the winner - Mark Rutte lost seats from 41 to 33.

There has been a grass roots rebellion against the Establishment in the UK, USA, Netherlands and now France. Those who have had power for years but have been found to be corrupt, uncaring and generally inept are being rejected.

The EU should take note. However, I suspect that they will just see the election of Macron as an endorsement of the direction they are headed and it will be life as normal in the ivory towers of Brussels. As long as the money keeps rolling in - what do they care of any grass roots rebellion? Let them eat cake!

[cyprusgrump]

On a separate note, it looks like the GBP rally CG got really excited about ran out of steam. In the event of protracted/difficult negotiations with the EU (most likely scenario) it's likely there will be further downside for the pound. In turn this will lead to more inflation and greater disparity between rising prices and static wages. Watch this space.

Good grief...

I don't recall excitement. I do recall pointing out how utterly and completely wrong your almost daily doomsday predictions about the collapse of the Pound had been. Ones like this: -

I've said all along that pressure will bear down on the pound around the time Article 50 is declared...and as negotiations proceed.

Place a ruler as far as best you can across the four spikes and the general trend is down.

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

I also recall posting a chart showing how the Pound had strengthened since article 50 was triggered to which you (somewhat predictably) replied that the five-day charts you had been using to 'prove' your point about the collapse of the Pound were no longer valid. Nor was a one-month chart - only a one-year chart would be acceptable. No doubt after June only a 2-year chart will be acceptable to you.

I note however that the rates at the moment are, £1=$1.29 and £1=$1.18.

[Jimgward]

Le Pen was National Front and the fact she won a third of the vote, shows nationalism is strong in France and their country rocked with racism and strife....

I don't think it's necessarily any endorsement for leaving the EU.

Macron would hardly be called leftist in any way, he just happens to be very pro-EU and has, as Happy stated, already declared an interest in making Brexit bite for the UK.

[Poppy]

Quote from XE Currency " The pound has continued to hold up well generally. Local election results last week showed the Tories beating Labour candidates in the latter's heartlands portending that the Conservatives are set to win big on June 8th which is going down well in Markets as it implies there will be a strong market friendly Government with a strong brexit mandate" - so according to them it is looking quite positive for the pound.

[cyprusgrump]

I stand by that prediction. In case you hadn't noticed, negotiations haven't yet started.

But your daily predictions and your doomsday forecasts have been demonstrably incorrect!

On the 11th of March when the Pound was £1 = €1.1393 you said: -

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

Plummeting! The Pound is at this moment £1 = €1.1853 You were wrong.

Across the (now) 5 peaks, the trend line is down, albeit marginally. The downwards trend may become more pronounced if things go badly once negotiations get under way.

Ah! So now a 5-day chart is the gold standard of HiC proof?

A few days ago a five day chart wasn't acceptable to you, nor a 1-month chart... Only a 1-year chart was acceptable proof of the decline of the Pound because it was the only one that fitted your narrative.

I've faced some fierce adversaries in my life and won against every single one of them.

You can see why - you just move the goalposts when you are losing!

[cyprusgrump]

The only thing evident from your pedantic drivel CG is that you've got too much time on your hands

Me losing? More likely the UK as a consequence of Brexit. Will be evident in the months which lie ahead. Just wait and see.

Really?

You've made more posts than me so that complaint must apply to yourself too.

Yes, we will see - I've said before that we will have to wait and see what the outcome of Brexit actually is. It is you that has continually posted that the Pound is in freefall - shame you didn't take your own advice and 'wait and see' eh?

To save me valuable time, I will repeat from my previous post.

On the 11th of March when the Pound was £1 = €1.1393 you said: -

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

Plummeting! The Pound is at this moment £1 = €1.1853 You were wrong.

Actually, today it is £1 = €1.1886 - you are still wrong.

[Poppy]

1.19 now. Looks as though the markets do have confidence in TM!

[Varky]

It really tickled me that HIC is criticising others for having too much time on their hands (for disagreeing with HIC, I suppose). Lightened my day. Sad I Know.

[cyprusgrump]

It really tickled me that HIC is criticising others for having too much time on their hands (for disagreeing with HIC, I suppose). Lightened my day. Sad I Know.

It gave me a good laugh this morning too!

[cyprusgrump]

I only come into the Political section late at night because I can't be bothered responding to each and every one of Mark's (CG's) nit-picking posts. He must spend his whole day looking for perceived inconsistencies in Remainer posts and then raising trivial queries on each and every one of them. He just can't seem to see the broader picture, poor chap.

Awww, poor downtrodden HiC! Do you have to stay out of the Politics section in case the bad boys reply while you are there...?

Did my single reply to your post yesterday wear you out then...? I think I made two or three posts yesterday and you have still made more posts overall than me so where does that put you...? I replied to your post at 7:43am so hardly spent my whole day looking for perceived inconsistencies...

In fact, I don't search for perceived inconsistencies at all - I don't even have a horse in the race. I have no idea what the effect of Brexit will be on the Pound. So many things affect the value of a currency against another it is almost impossible for somebody like me to have knowledge of how some unknown future events will unfold.

Of course, I would prefer the strongest rate of the Pound against the €uro. My cash is in Sterling and I live in €uroland. However, what will be will be and we'll have to live with whatever happens.

However...

You conversely have continually proclaimed that the Pound is plunging, collapsing or whatever - frequently providing charts showing the precipitous fall of the Pound against the €uro as proof of your currency guru knowledge.

You pipe up every time there is a fall of the Pound against the €uro - even when the Pound has gained ground on every other major currency. I think it is clear that it is you that cannot (or will not) see the broader picture. Sadly, you've set out your stall on this and as the Internet never forgets you have to resort to personal insults rather than just admitting that you were wrong.

The last five Sterling rallies all fell away at around the €1.20 mark. Where we might exect to see significant breakout either way will be when negotiations start in earnest. That's when shorters will be sharpening their pencils

Again, you stated that Sterling was plummeting - not might, not will, not after Article 50, not after negotiations start, but was actually plummeting.

That's the reality folks, with I suspect, more to come. Perhaps now you'll appreciate the extent to which the pound is plummeting

And since then, any evidence that the Pound isn't actually plummeting is met with, Brexit hasn't happened yet, Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet (well, it has now) and finally negotiations haven't started yet (Really? Even after Junker went to Downing Street - perhaps they discussed the weather?)...

Perhaps, instead of insulting other posters, you should just admit that your predictions were at best a little premature...?