It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Whatever your political persuasion, defend your corner here. All we ask is that you voice YOUR opinion, rather than just post a link to a half-hour youtube video. Politics can get a bit lively, and if you prefer a less combative debate, please post in the Politics for Moderates section instead.
User avatar
Jimgward
Posts: 3115
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:14 pm
Location: Lanark
Contact:

It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward »

Reported in Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... c-obr-says

Brexit worse for the UK economy than Covid pandemic, OBR says
Fiscal watchdog says Brexit would cut GDP by around 4% long term, while Covid impacts would hit output by a further 2%


The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”

Gross domestic product – or GDP – is a measure of the size of the economy.

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/ ... 46730.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -chairman/

The Daily Mail throws a different slant on it....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... demic.html

Tory Brexiteers' fury as UK financial watchdog claims Brexit will have a bigger impact on the economy than the Covid crisis
Office for Budget Responsibility chairman said Brexit will reduce GDP by 4%
Richard Hughes said the watchdog expects the pandemic to shrink GDP by 2%
He said in 'long term' Brexit will have a 'bigger impact' on economy than Covid
Brexiteers rubbished forecast and said OBR 'not famed' for accurate predictions
Kili01
Posts: 4651
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:41 am

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Kili01 »

Well, Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving...its quite hard to resist saying we told you so! Unfortunately, Brexit was not planned for properly. Boris, I seem to remember was in such a hurry to leave the EU that he chose to ignore sensible proposals from the EU to delay finalising Brexit to allow further discussions with the EU, and to give more time to have trade talks with other countries. Instead he chose to push ahead in his wild, impetuous way without sorting out all important trade deals and treaties. Also he underestimated the number of EU workers in situ until afterwards when the chronic shortage of HGV drivers, nurses, care workers, agricultural workers to name a few, caused serious problems in their essential fields of work. No wonder that the UK economy is shrinking.
Also referred to in the article was the near collapse of the NHS, understaffed and over worked, the ridiculous way that many GP's refuse to see their patients except on zoom or phone, dentists, mine included, who said he wanted to see his patients but couldn't obtain the essential PPE for months.
All in all still a dysfunctional country. My country, it makes me sad and angry to see the way its being mismanaged.
Now British Expats in EU countries are down graded to 3rd country nationals,
Dee
Jim B
Posts: 2750
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:42 am

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jim B »

The point being is who would you trust, The Daily Mail and Blojo or the OBR..
User avatar
Jimgward
Posts: 3115
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:14 pm
Location: Lanark
Contact:

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward »

Termite, there are some positives in what you posted, but we have already lost trillions from the City of London in investments, PLUS, the UK isn’t just London. Most of the people are suffering. Petrol over £1.50 a litre, all foodstuffs up in price, shortages everywhere, shelves empty, M&S stopped Xmas food orders, import fees huge, time to get imports from 3 days to 3 weeks as overwhelmed. Fishing and Agriculture is sinking (sic) and few seem to feel we are better off in any way, Other than Rees-Mogg and his Tory chums with their sleaze. Only the super rich get richer.
User avatar
Jimgward
Posts: 3115
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:14 pm
Location: Lanark
Contact:

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward »

https://cyprus-mail.com/2021/11/15/shel ... TO5lGpAB6s

Looks more like Shell is moving to the UK as we are more lax on taxes and climate targets and likely trading standards etc. Makes sense, we have been called a rogue state recently and we are one of the largest Money-laundering places on earth.
Jim B
Posts: 2750
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:42 am

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jim B »

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A ... nwucWA&s=1

Some interesting reading showing how Export/Import companies are coping with the the new C&E procedures to Europe.
User avatar
Devil
Forum Curmudgeon
Posts: 3939
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:34 am
Location: Mosfiloti

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Devil »

"Brexit will have a bigger impact on the economy than the Covid crisiswill have a bigger impact on the economy than the Covid crisis"

Surprise! Surprise! Who would have thought it? Obvious, isn't it? After all, BrexIt will still be having its effects 20 years from now!
User avatar
Jimgward
Posts: 3115
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:14 pm
Location: Lanark
Contact:

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward »

Devil won't like me posting entire article.... but....

https://www.cityam.com/brexit-and-p...a ... isruption/

The political choice of Brexit has cost UK businesses as much as the unforeseeable Covid pandemic.

British companies have lost over £250bn to Covid and an equal amount to Brexit by the end of 2021, but the Brexit tally is now rising faster,

The Centre for Economics and Business Research found that Covid-19 lockdowns had cost UK businesses £251bn by March of last year.

It revealed the value of the goods and services produced by the economy was more than £250bn lower than it would otherwise have been.

It calculated the Gross value added (GVA), which measures the value of the goods and services produced by the economy, minus the costs of inputs and raw materials needed to deliver them.

Covid-19 cost small businesses alone an estimated £126.6bn, according to the business insurer Simply Business, while a November 2021 Government report revealed the UK lost almost £365 billion in GDP from Covid overall.

Commenting on the figures, David Jinks, who is head of consumer research at delivery firm ParcelHero, said: “British businesses have had a torrid few years.”

“Brexit or Covid, which has been the heavier burden for them to bear? The shocking answer is that the entirely avoidable Brexit crisis has had as much of an impact on UK businesses as the unforeseeable Covid-19 tragedy, and its costs are still rising,” he added.


“No one could have foreseen the arrival of the pandemic and there was little that could have been done to shield UK businesses in advance. However, this is certainly not the case for the impact of Brexit on UK businesses,” Jinks said.

The confrontational handling of trade negotiations with the European Union made “a bad situation worse,” he stated.

Before Brexit had even happened, a 2020 report by Bloomberg Economics revealed that, by the end of that year, the economic cost of Brexit already exceeded £200bn in lost revenues to UK companies. It calculated the British economy was 3 per cent smaller than it otherwise would have been.

Since Brexit actually happened, on 1 January, 2021, the UK Trade Policy Observatory reveals that the reduction in trade has lost UK businesses a further £44bn.

“That breaks down to £32.5bn lost in potential imports to the UK and £11bn in exports to the EU,” Jinks pointed out.

The UK Government splashed a further £8.1bn on preparing for Brexit and the end of the transition period, according to the Institute for Government.

“In our view, that was money that should have been spent on promoting UK trade across the EU and beyond, not battening down the hatches,” noted Jinks.

The figures mean that the combined costs of Brexit and of the pandemic both equal around £250bn.

However, in the long term, Brexit could end up costing even more than Covid-19.

Thomas Sampson, Associate Professor at the London School of Economics, said: “When measured in terms of their impact on the present value of UK GDP, the Brexit shock is forecast to be two to three times greater than the impact of Covid-19.

Moreover, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) told the BBC last October that leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4 per cent.”

It is believed the effect of the pandemic will reduce GDP output by only a further 2 per cent.
User avatar
Devil
Forum Curmudgeon
Posts: 3939
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:34 am
Location: Mosfiloti

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Devil »

Jimgward wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:55 pm Devil won't like me posting entire article.... but....
Full marks for being right! :lol: :lol: :lol: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
living the dream
Posts: 123
Joined: Wed May 30, 2018 10:18 am

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by living the dream »

Read last week on my return to the UK for a weeks break that the UK Economy was the fastest growing economy within the G7 Countries and trade etc was almost back to post Covid levels - fail to see how the conclusions by the OBR hold water. I have noticed that prices have gone up in Supermarkets since I was back here in July last year but there were many offers on every aisle and the food shop was probably only a few pounds more than previously paid for a similar shop. Beer was up in my local though from £3.80 to £4.00 a pint but understandable give the last 2 years but the restaurant meals dont seem to have increased much more from the menus 6 months ago.
User avatar
Jimgward
Posts: 3115
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:14 pm
Location: Lanark
Contact:

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jimgward »

JIm B - that’s the true picture, always spun differently by Johnson (ex PM within weeks, methinks)

Also, the price of everything is up in the UK, I cannot think of anything that is cheaper, or even the same.

Inflation is expected to hit 7.5% before the summer. True rate would be over 10% if previous governments hadn’t removed lots of items from the rate.
trevnhil
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:12 pm
Location: Polemi

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by trevnhil »

This clip is from this week's Martin Lewis 'Money saving Expert' page.
" Currently the (electricity)price cap is £1,277 a year. It's estimated that on the 1 April it'll jump around 50% to £1,925 a year – and we're pretty sure of that unless there's Government intervention or Ofgem changes – because the assessment period for that 1 April price cap is the six-month run-up until the end of January and we're nearly there.

"That will then be locked in until 1 October when it'll change again. Now, that 1 October price cap depends on wholesale prices from the start of February until the end of July. We clearly don't know what they are but if they stayed at current rates, we'd expect to see another 20% hike in October. Horrendous, unaffordable, miserable. "

Not very good news at all
Trev..
Jim B
Posts: 2750
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:42 am

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Jim B »

Trev
The price rise in France is 4% as their government slapped a windfall tax on the power companies rather than the consumers.
I think nows the time to relook at Frakking as the USA have done.
trevnhil
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:12 pm
Location: Polemi

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by trevnhil »

The problem with Frakking seems to be that there is a lot of local opposition.
There is or was a site near Preston and Blackpool, but there were many protests about it.
I am not sure if work has been stopped or if it continues
Trev..
The Aquila
Posts: 1066
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:12 am

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by The Aquila »

A lot of protests were by people with no, or little, understanding of the processes.
User avatar
Dominic
Site Admin
Posts: 14930
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:00 pm
Location: Polemi
Contact:

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Dominic »

There were lots of protests about Nuclear Powers Stations as well. Perhaps now that people are having to face the consequences of their actions, it is time to give Nuclear another go.
Web Designer / Developer. Currently working on Paphos Life.
Living in Polemi, Cyprus with my wife and daughter.
User avatar
Devil
Forum Curmudgeon
Posts: 3939
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:34 am
Location: Mosfiloti

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Devil »

For once, Dominic, we are on the same wavelength. But we really need to give the notion of nuclear a little thought. I believe that the general feeling against nuclear is derived from Chernobyl and possibly Three Mile Island. Then, along came Fukushima. This was a bit of a red herring because the initial fault had nothing to do with the nuclear power station; it was a combination of events triggered by the tsunami: the worst one was that the connection to the grid was lost; the second one was the failure of an emergency generator to start; the third one, of course, is the well-known flooding of the other emergency generator. If power had been available from either the grid or the first emergency generator, none of the later events would have happened, even after the safety wall had been breached. I don't know whether the fact that the emergency generators were at ground level or underground is considered really significant because no one knew better at the time that the power station was designed in the US, the engineer probably not even thinking that their standard design was to be placed in a tsunami zone.

Since these catastrophes took place, nuclear is looking different. In the first place, the Fukushima reactor was designed 25 to 30 years earlier. It was a class II installation; we have now advanced to class III a, if not class IV. However, even class IV, which incorporates all the latest knowledge on the subject, may be on its way out. There are advances in nuclear technology which may render them superfluous except for some extreme cases. The most significant ones are the Indian thorium reactor and the British mini reactor. Both include the latest technology and are inherently safe (technically impossible for a run-away reaction). These are where I see the future of nuclear and they will replace the 400-odd current nuclear reactors in the world.

By the way, I see no reason why we should not have two mini reactors in Cyprus, one in the east and one in the West. This would enable the fossil fuelled power stations to be decommissioned and they could be operational by 2030! This way, we would be independent of the bad weather we've had over the past three weeks not providing us with sufficient electricity.
Chaddy
Posts: 780
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:39 am

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Chaddy »

I suppose it is really where you get your news info from.In one newspaper they where a "mob" In another they where " activists " :?
Uncle D
Posts: 1996
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:50 am
Location: Miliou

Re: It’s Official - from the OBR -Brexit is much worse for UK economy than even COVID pandemic

Post by Uncle D »

It's funny how these activists/mobs have no work to go to, maybe they are all wealthy or on benefits 🙄
David
Post Reply